- By Chetna Shree
- Fri, 30 Jan 2026 06:03 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Union Budget 2026: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her record ninth consecutive budget on February 1, 2026. The budget is expected to include strong measures to boost economic growth amid a volatile geopolitical landscape. Sitharaman has presented eight consecutive budgets so far, including the interim budget in February 2024.
Ahead of the budget presentation on February 1, here's a closer look at key numbers to be watched:
GDP Growth: The Economic Survey has projected India's real GDP growth between 6.8 and 7.2 per cent for FY27, slightly lower than the 7.4 per cent estimated for the current FY26. The projection reflects a steady growth of the economy amid ongoing global uncertainties.
Fiscal Deficit: The government targeted a fiscal deficit of 4.4 per cent of GDP for FY26 and is likely to aim for 4.3 per cent in FY27, India TV reported. Analysts are watching whether the focus will shift from the deficit percentage to the Debt-to-GDP ratio, with a long-term objective of bringing it down to 50 per cent by FY31.
Capex Outlay: Capital expenditure is projected to get a 10-15 per cent boost, possibly reaching between Rs 12 trillion and Rs 12.5 trillion.
Sector Focus: While roads and railways continue to receive significant funding, the budget is likely to focus on green energy through the Green Hydrogen Mission, nuclear power, and high-tech manufacturing like AI and robotics.
Credit Rating: Japanese credit rating agency, Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) has upgraded India’s long-term sovereign credit rating from ‘BBB’ to ‘BBB+’, while maintaining a ‘Stable’ outlook for the economy, India TV report added.
Exports: India's exports hit record levels, reaching USD 825.3 billion in FY25 and USD 418.5 billion in the first half of FY26, driven by strong growth in services and steady momentum in non-petroleum, non-gems and jewellery shipments.
ALSO READ: US Unable To Counter China Alone? Washinghton Planning Key India-Focused Meet Next Month
Unemployment Hits Seven-Month Low: India’s unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 and above fell to 4.7 per cent in November 2025, down from 5.2 per cent in October, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The decline was driven by a drop in rural unemployment to 3.9 per cent and 6.5 per cent in urban areas, reflecting a stabilising and strengthening labour market.
Repo Rate Cut: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed interest rates by 125 points since February 2025, lowering the repo rate to 5.25 per cent. This comes at a time when India's economic growth stays strong.
India-Europe FTA: The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Europe is set to boost India's manufacturing competitiveness, export resilience, and strategic capacity. The FTA will provide market access for over 99 per cent of India’s exports by trade value, while safeguarding policy space for sensitive sectors and supporting the country’s developmental priorities, India TV report added.