India has signalled a willingness to reset ties with Bangladesh by sending Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to attend the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected Prime Minister Tariq Rahman in Dhaka. The diplomatic gesture is being viewed as an outreach effort, though experts say New Delhi must proceed cautiously.
Professor Sanjay K Bhardwaj of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), an expert on India-Bangladesh relations, said it would be premature to expect an immediate shift in bilateral ties under the new leadership.
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According to Bhardwaj, Bangladesh’s political transition reflects what he describes as a “Manage One” formula, managing one major party into power rather than removing both dominant political forces, as seen in earlier “Minus Two” strategies.
Although the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured a strong electoral mandate, Bhardwaj argued that Tariq Rahman does not yet command universal acceptance within the country. He suggested that regional and global powers, including the United States, China and Pakistan, also found this arrangement acceptable, leading to the withdrawal of pending legal cases against Rahman.
The professor identified four developments that will determine the trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations over the next 12 to 18 months:
- Ideological Direction of the Government: Rahman’s early appointments suggest a tilt toward Islamic political positioning. However, Bhardwaj noted that while the BNP may pursue politics framed around Islamic identity, it is unlikely to adopt the radical agenda associated with Jamaat-e-Islami.
- Ganga Water Sharing Issue: A long-pending meeting on the Ganga water-sharing agreement is scheduled for August. While Rahman may attempt to move the deal forward, domestic political sensitivities in West Bengal could stall progress.
- Border Security Concerns: India will closely monitor developments along the India-Bangladesh border, particularly given past allegations during BNP rule of support for insurgent groups such as ULFA.
- Geopolitical and Minority Issues: The protection of minorities, including Hindu communities, and Bangladesh’s approach to projects with potential security implications for India will serve as major indicators of policy direction.
On the condition of Hindu minorities, Bhardwaj expressed skepticism about significant improvement. He pointed out that incidents targeting minorities have occurred under various governments, including BNP and Awami League administrations.
Rahman’s recent statement that relations with India would be guided by “Dhaka’s interests” was described by Bhardwaj as a domestic political message aimed at strengthening his legitimacy, similar to nationalist slogans used by leaders globally.
Despite political uncertainty, trade relations are expected to remain stable or even expand. Bhardwaj noted that economic ties between the two countries have historically continued regardless of political tensions, as strong trade links help Bangladesh manage inflation and economic pressures.
Speculation about potential legal action against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains uncertain. Bhardwaj suggested Rahman is unlikely to pursue aggressive steps such as extradition in the near term, as it could strain bilateral relations.
Regarding former interim leader Muhammad Yunus, Bhardwaj indicated that he may continue to hold influence in Bangladesh’s political structure. He suggested Yunus could secure a prominent constitutional role in the future, potentially affecting India’s strategic calculations.
While India’s attendance at the inauguration signals diplomatic openness, analysts warn that relations will depend on concrete policy decisions rather than symbolic gestures. Over the next year and a half, developments in governance style, security cooperation, minority protection and water-sharing negotiations are expected to shape the future of India-Bangladesh ties.