Pakistani Terrorism Thrives As Farmers Face Wrath: Rabi Season To See 22% Deficit With Indus Water Treaty On Hold

While Pakistan continues to fuel cross-border terrorism along the Line of Control, its agricultural backbone is on the brink of a severe crisis. Even as security forces neutralised four terrorists, including a top Lashkar-e-Taiba commander, during a failed infiltration attempt in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch district, Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) announced a projected 22 per cent water shortage for the upcoming Rabi cropping season. With the Indus Waters Treaty on hold, key agricultural belts like Punjab and Sindh are set to bear the brunt of the water deficit, leaving local farmers to pay the price for the regime's hostility and systemic neglect.

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The forecasted deficit was approved by IRSA’s Advisory Committee during a meeting convened to review expected water availability and formulate provincial allocations for Rabi crops. IRSA is responsible for coordinating water distribution among Pakistan’s provinces under the country’s water-sharing arrangements, with its seasonal assessments forming the basis for provincial water allocations.

The country is projected to have 29.183 million acre-feet (MAF) of water available during the Rabi season, while river inflows are estimated at 21.268 MAF.

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What does the distribution look like?

Under the approved distribution, Punjab is expected to receive 15.564 MAF, followed by Sindh with 11.748 MAF. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been allocated 701,000 acre-feet, while Balochistan will receive 1.171 MAF.

The prediction follows an equally weak Kharif season, during which river inflows totaled 95.444 MAF, down 22 per cent from the previous year and 7 per cent below the 10-year average.

As per IRSA, on September 30, water stored in the country’s reservoirs stood at 9.343 MAF.Meanwhile, releases downstream of the Kotri Barrage during the Kharif season amounted to 14 MAF.

Delays Led To Water Shortage?

The authority also approved the closure of Chashma Barrage for 21 days from December 26 to January 14 under the annual provincial canal closure programme. IRSA has further instructed the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) to accelerate work on the Tarbela 4th Extension and Tarbela 5th Extension projects.

The IRSA committee claimed that the delays in completion of the two projects have further contributed to the water shortage in the Kharif season. The prediction of water shortage in the Rabi season has further heightened the pressure of agricultural production. Major agricultural areas, such as Punjab and Sindh, will face maximum water shortages. Farmers depend on the Rabi season, which involves cropping following the Kharif harvest.