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North India Monsoon Trend:  The monsoon has not yet shown any signs of abating, despite being halfway through September. It is "almost certain," according to meteorologists, that the intense rains that started in June will linger over Northwest India until October, extending the region's abnormally lengthy monsoon season this year too.

“Certainly. The monsoon has been withdrawing later than usual over the years. The ‘normal dates’ have shifted. This time too, the current forecast suggests good rainfall activity over Rajasthan around the time when the withdrawal usually begins,” said IMD chief Dr M Mohapatra.

The monsoon has been seen to take an additional 7–14 days to retreat from several states in North India as the four-month season comes to an end.

Unseasonal Rain Woes

The 'unseasonal rains' in October not only endanger standing crops in important states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, but they have also shortened the harvesting season, requiring farmers to adjust to a disrupted crop cycle.

“It is definitely concerning because farmers have to harvest the crops and prepare for the next sowing season within a very short window. It also pushes them to resort to the harmful practice of stubble burning. This year too, it seems North India will continue to get rains till the first week of October,” said senior atmospheric scientist Dr M Rajeevan, who is also former government secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

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Low-pressure systems that formed over the Bay of Bengal in September continue to fuel the dwindling monsoon. Last year, the monsoon retreat began on September 25 in West Rajasthan, eight days later than the customary date of September 17. In 2022, it was three days late (September 20), but the previous year, it did not begin withdrawing until October 6, a three-week wait. Paddy harvesting begins on October 1, however, certain short-duration varieties are harvested as early as September.

“There is still some time for paddy harvesting. But there could be some impact on crops like soybean, especially in the Marathwada region, black gram, and pulses which are harvested early. Farmers need continuous dry weather at this time,” said Kripan Ghosh, senior scientist heading the agri-met division of IMD.

Why Long Monsoons Over North India?

The tendency got increasingly prominent over the previous decade, forcing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to declare a 'new normal' for the monsoon season. So, while the start dates for Kerala stayed constant, the monsoon retreat from West Rajasthan (Bikaner, Jaisalmer) was moved from September 1 to September 17. It's interesting to note that the monsoon eventually left South India by October 15—just in time for the arrival of the northeast monsoon—despite spending a longer time over Northwest India.

Thus far, experts have been unable to determine the cause of these odd delays. They speculated that it may be a component of a "multi-decadal natural variability" - variations in the monsoon that occur every ten years.