• Source:JND
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday stated that India will likely receive above-normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season, which is attributed to the expected onset of La Nina conditions by August-September and several other weather conditions. IMD stated that the estimated cumulative rainfall is expected to be around 106 per cent of the long-period average (87 cm).   

However, the meteorological agency added that while the overall rainfall may be higher, it does not ensure even distribution across the country and climate change is contributing to increased variability in rainfall patterns.

Historical data from 1951 to 2023 indicates that India has experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall nine times when La Nina succeeded an El Nino event. However, meteorologists warn of a decrease in the number of rainy days and an increase in heavy rainfall events, leading to more frequent droughts and floods.

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Factors Influencing 2024 Monsoon Forecast

  • La Nina: Expected to follow the current moderate El Nino conditions, which are predicted to neutralise by the monsoon onset.

  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Positive conditions are anticipated, which typically favour the Indian monsoon.

  • Snow Cover: Lower than-average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is also considered favourable for the monsoon.

Impact On Agriculture

The southwest monsoon accounts for approximately 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, playing a crucial role in the agriculture sector, which contributes to about 14 per cent of the nation’s GDP. The forecasted rainfall is therefore significant for agricultural productivity and the economy.

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Notably, the IMD’s forecast, based on current climatic conditions and historical patterns, suggests a potentially bountiful monsoon season for India in 2024. However, the uneven distribution of rainfall and the effects of climate change remain concerns for the country’s agriculture and water management.