• Source:JND

The Lok Sabha is currently debating the Nari Shakti Abhinandan Adhiniyam or the Women's Reservation Bill in the Lok Sabha to enact a 33 per cent reservation for women in the Parliament and the State assemblies.

While the Centre has introduced the bill, it lacks the required numbers in Parliament to get it passed with a two-thirds majority, without shoring up support from other parties or make some of them abstain.

Number game in Lok Sabha

According to the House equation in Lok Sabha, the NDA has the support of 293 members, which is 54 per cent of the house. The opposition, on the other hand, has 233 MPs.

The rest of the seats lie with other parties. While four belong to YSRCP, one each is held by AIMIM and Shiromani Akali Dal, and 7 are held by independent MPs.

Since it is a Constitutional Amendment Bill, the rules require support of 360 MPs, two-thirds of those present and voting.

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Possible scenarios in case of abstention

  • If 30 MPs abstain from the house, the total strength will fall to 510, and the required majority will be 340
  • Similarly, if 60 MPs abstain, the total strength would fall to 480, and the two-thirds mark would come down to 320.
  • The abstention of 90 MPs would still make the NDA require support from 300 MPs to get the legislation cleared.

The calculation suggests that the ruling NDA can get the bill passed in the Lower House only if at least two main opposition parties from amongst the Samajwadi Party (37 MPs), Trinamool Congress (28 MPs) or DMK (22 MPs) abstain. Hence, the possibility remains low.

The NDA's tally in the Lok Sabha includes 240 BJP MPs, 16 TDP MPs and 12 JDU MPs. If the Bill fails in the Lok Sabha, it would not be taken up by the Rajya Sabha.

Rajya Sabha challenge if NDA gets majority in Lok Sabha

In the upper house, the NDA has 141 MPs in their favour, which is 58 per cent of the upper house, and the opposition has 83 MPs in support. Other regional parties, including the BRS, YSRCP, BJD, BSP and independents, collectively have 20 MPs.

As a two-thirds majority in the case of all members present and voting is 163 in the Rajya Sabha, these 20 MPs could become a game-changer for the ruling coalition.

However, chances of this seem low as BJD president and former Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik on Thursday appealed to all MPs from Odisha to put a unified fight for the protection of the state's political and economic interests, which, according to him, are under "threat" due to the Delimitation Bill.

Patnaik, although supported the Women's Reservation Bill, he has urged the state MPs to oppose it in its original form, saying it raises serious concerns that go beyond its stated objective.

ALSO READ: PM Modi Reaches Out To Oppn, Says 'No Change In Seat Proportion In Lok Sabha After Delimitation'

Nari Shakti Abinandan Adhiniyam introduced in Lok Sabha

The 131st Constitution Amendment Bill to tweak the women's quota law was introduced on Thursday in the Lok Sabha after a division of votes.

Along with it, two ordinary bills, the Delimitation Bill and the Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill, are also introduced to implement the proposed 33 per cent women's quota law in UTs of Delhi, Puducherry and Jammu and Kashmir.

The bills were introduced after a division of votes, which was sought by the Opposition, following a fiery 40-minute debate


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