Assam Elections 2026: The campaigns to woo voters have intensified ahead of the April 9 Assam Assembly elections. An aggressive Hindutva line of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has polarised the elections in the 126 constituencies, seeking a third term in the key northeastern state. Chief Minister and the poster boy of Hindutva, Himanta Biswa Sarma's hard stance on the Muslim community has set the tone of the upcoming elections. According to the 2011 Census, Assam had a total Muslim population of 1.07 crore, 34.22 per cent of the 3.12 crore residents of the state, which means over one-third of the population are from the Minority community. Does it mean that they could be a kingmaker in the elections?
Muslims dominate in the Brahmaputra Valley, Barak Valley, and several districts in Lower Assam, such as Dhubri, Barpeta, Nagaon, and Darrang. A consolidated Muslim vote bank has the potential to change electoral dynamics in Assam. If Muslim votes swing in favour of one alliance, it could directly impact 20-25 seats.
Assamese Community Will Become Almost Minority In 2027 Census: Himanta
Last month, CM Sarma claimed that the Assamese community will become "almost" a minority in the 2027 Census. During the Motion of Thanks on the governor's address in the assembly, Sarma also said that he is in politics amid a "very dark time".
"During 2027 Census, the Assamese community will become almost a minority," he told the House without elaborating. "Today, people from Dhubri as well as Majuli call me and say 'I am safe and secured'. We are marching towards (being a) minority, but just one lamp is giving light and courage," he said.
Sarma has earlier claimed on several occasions that the population of Muslims in Assam would be almost equal to that of the Hindus by 2041 if the current growth rate continues. He claimed that "Bangladeshi Muslims" could constitute nearly 40 per cent of the state's population in the next Census.
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Nine Districts Became A Muslim Majority: BJP
The BJP has been regularly highlighting demographic changes in the state, claiming that at least nine districts became a Muslim majority as per the 2011 Census from six in 2001, and the number increased to at least 11 at present, although no census was conducted in 2021.
In 2001, when Assam had 23 districts, Muslims were in the majority in six: Dhubri (74.29 per cent), Goalpara (53.71 per cent), Barpeta (59.37 per cent), Nagaon (51 per cent), Karimganj (52.3 per cent) and Hailakandi (57.63 per cent).
The number of districts increased to 27 in 2011 and nine out of them had Muslim majority:
Dhubri (79.67 per cent), Goalpara (57.52 per cent), Barpeta (70.74 per cent), Morigaon (52.56 per cent), Nagaon (55.36 per cent), Karimganj (56.36 per cent), Hailakandi (60.31 per cent), Bongaigaon (50.22 per cent) and Darrang (64.34 per cent).
Influence Of AIUDF
Maulana Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is the third-largest party in the state, which holds influence in the Muslim majority districts. Muslim votes primarily go to the alliance of Congress and the AIUDF. However, this time Congress deserted its ally AIUDF, which may split the Muslim voters.
In 2021, the AIUDF won 16 seats with 9.29% of the vote share with 17,86,551 votes. If AIUDF repeats its performance in this election, it could be a kingmaker in the state, making a post-poll alliance.
The number of Muslim-majority seats has decreased from 29 to 22 after the new delimitation of assembly seats in 2023, yet the number is crucial in the state where the majority mark is 64.
If a single party receives 70-80% of the Muslim vote across the state in the 2026 elections, the opposition alliance could gain 10-15 additional seats, which may give a big advantage to the Congress-led alliance.
(With Agencies inputs)