Is India's fertility rate declining? The country's total fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level for the first time in decades. This implies that the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth in her lifetime has fallen below the level needed to maintain a stable population.
According to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024, published by the office of the registrar general and census commissioner under the Union ministry of home affairs, India's total fertility rate has declined. Even as the country's overall population is expected to increase for the upcoming years, it will gradually witness a slow decline in its growth if the fertility level does not rise above 2.15 again.
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What Is Replacement Level?
The report says that India's Replacement level has dropped below the benchmark of 2.1. Replacement level refers to the number of children each woman must have for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without growing or shrinking. The population will gradually decline if a country's fertility rate remains below this level for a long time.
Experts at Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimate that India's population will reach its highest point in 21 years before beginning a steep decline, the Economist reported. By the end of the century, the country's population is projected to be slightly above one billion, representing a drop of nearly half a billion people.
Major Differences Between States
Bihar recorded the highest population rate among all states with a TFR of 2.9. This was followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6 and Madhya Pradesh at 2.4. These three are the only larger states that recorded fertility rates above the replacement level.
Delhi recorded the lowest TFR in the country, standing at 1.2. The development is significant, as it recorded a TFR lower than Finland, which stands at 1.3, the report added.
Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal each reported a TFR of 1.3. Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra, and Punjab recorded 1.4, while Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana each stood at 1.5.
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Why Is The Fertility Rate Declining?
There are several factors that promote family-planning patterns in the tech-driven 21st century. The Economist said changing ambitions of present-day Indian parents are one of the key factors contributing to the decline in fertility rates in India. Most modern couples are opting for a single child, given the increasing expenses to fund children's educational opportunities.
A second reason behind the gradual decline is the blurring line of the joint family system. Government data show that about 70 per cent of people now live in nuclear families, driven by urbanisation and shifts in employment patterns. As a result, raising children places greater pressure on parents, encouraging them to have fewer children.
Another significant reason behind the drop in the TFR level is cultural change. The report mentioned that the emergence of cable television in the rural areas has led to a decline in pregnancies over the years. Experts say that the decline in fertility rate is linked to the television dramas portraying women who are promoting smaller families.