Skymet Weather, a private weather forecaster, has said that monsoon rains in India will be “below normal” this year, hitting a long-period average (LPA) of 94 per cent. This trend will also see a +/-5 per cent error margin.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), in the last season, 747.9mm of rain was recorded in northwest India. India saw 7.9 per cent excess rainfall when compared to the LPA during last year.

According to Skymet, this year’s monsoon shows varying probabilities. There is a 40 per cent probability that rainfall will be below normal, falling between 90 per cent and 95 per cent of the long period average (LPA). The chances of a drought, defined as rainfall below 90 per cent of the LPA, stand at 30 per cent. A normal monsoon, with rainfall ranging from 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the LPA, has been assigned a 20 per cent probability. The possibility of above-normal rainfall, between 105 per cent and 110 per cent of the LPA, is at 10 per cent. The LPA for the June to September monsoon season is 868.6 mm.

"The spread is below normal, being 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier forecast in Jan 2026, Skymet assessed the Monsoon 2026 to be subpar and now retains the same," Skymet Weather said, as quoted by a Hindustan Times report.

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Rain Forecast For April

IMD has stated that several states are set to witness light to heavy rainfall at least till April 9. The weather department, while providing details, asserted that the northern states are also expected to receive strong surface winds and lightning. The rainfall is likely to reduce the temperature by two to four degrees Celsius, providing relief from the heat. The weather department has advised the residents to follow the guidelines to avoid any inconveniences.

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The weather department stated that several states across the country, including Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and Sikkim, are set to witness moderate to heavy rain. Apart from this, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Odisha are also expected to receive rain till April 9.