Weather Update: A strong El Nino event, which is currently developing over the Pacific Ocean, is likely to influence India’s weather over the next several months. The weather phenomenon is expected to affect the northeast monsoon, winter conditions, and October-December cyclone season. However, scientists argue that its effects may not follow the usual pattern of reduced rainfall and drought.

El Nino To Peak In November

Speaking at a media dialogue organised by IIOE-2 ECSN on Wednesday, climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, said the current El Nino was already very strong and could reach its peak in November. “Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are currently around 2.6 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, with some regions even warmer. Climate models suggest anomalies could approach 4 degrees Celsius,” Koll said.

According to Koll, the event may weaken by April-May 2027, but the heat stored in the oceans will continue to affect global weather for several months. The latest assessment from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also points to a strengthening El Nino, with a high probability of the event continuing through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter.

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Earlier in September, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also warned that El Nino is firmly established and is likely to strengthen into a very strong event in the coming months, with its effects continuing into early 2027.

What It Means For India's Weather?

El Nino has traditionally been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India. However, scientists said it should not be treated as a simple predictor of India's weather. A warmer climate and unusually warm Indian Ocean could change how its effects play out. Himadri Saini, a researcher at the University of Melbourne, said global warming is changing the baseline for what is considered normal weather.

She added that El Nino sets the broader climate pattern, but actual rainfall also depends on smaller systems such as low-pressure areas and monsoon depressions. As El Nino can change global air currents, it significantly impacts southern peninsular India during October-to-December season. During these months, the northeast monsoon brings a major portion of the yearly rainfall to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Karnataka.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), El Nino generally fosters normal to above-normal rainfall during the northeast monsoon (October–December) over southern peninsular India. This means that when an El Nino is active, southern India usually gets normal or even heavier.

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