The Pacific Ocean is showing signs of a potentially powerful El Nino event, raising concerns among climate and weather experts about extreme heat, drought and disruptions to global food supplies.
Surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific are reportedly around 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Scientists are assessing the possibility of an exceptionally strong El Nino developing by the end of 2026, which could have significant effects on weather patterns worldwide.
India May Get Some Relief
Despite the global concerns, India could avoid the worst of the immediate impact. According to meteorologists, changes in the Pacific and their associated weather effects can take around 40 to 45 days to influence India.
This delay could mean that the strongest effects arrive after the southwest monsoon has largely withdrawn from the country. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could also help limit the impact on India's weather.
Monsoon Already Below Normal
India received a deficit of about 12 per cent compared to the normal rainfall from June 1 to August 13. While June received a rainfall deficit of 35.4 per cent, the month of July saw a significant recovery in rainfall and remained close to normal levels
The India Meteorological Department expects August and September to potentially receive below-normal rainfall. Even if the current monsoon avoids a major El Niño-related disruption, the phenomenon could affect India's winter rainfall in the months ahead.
Global Food Prices Could Rise
The potential impact extends beyond weather. Experts in weather and agriculture say a severe El Nino could negatively impact production in many agricultural sectors, leading to a strain on global food networks.
A reduced amount of rice and palm oil, for example, produced in regions of Southeast Asia could increase the price of edible oils and grains.
Australia, Indonesia Face Drought Risk
Some of the more extreme impacts will be in the western Pacific. This area, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia, may face decreasing rainfall, raising drought risk and increasing the danger of forest fires.
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Could Global Heat Records Fall?
El Nino events are generally tied to a warmer Earth. If a stronger event during 2026-27 is associated with the warmest conditions in the global oceans, this warming of the Pacific could mean record temperatures could be made all over the Earth.
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