India's Bold Move: Indus Waters Treaty Suspension A Quick Diplomatic Response Against Terrorism

Though symbolic in the short term, the move dismantles long-standing legal constraints that had limited India’s capacity to develop multi-purpose infrastructure on the western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. Freed from the treaty’s procedural bottlenecks, the country now has the legislative and strategic bandwidth to realign water flows for domestic benefit.

This shift has paved the way for India to reorient western river waters toward eastern river basins, particularly the Ravi-Beas system, which sustains agricultural lifelines across Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. Notably, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered in 1960, had remarkably survived the Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971, the Kargil conflict of 1999, as well as devastating acts of terrorism such as the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and the Pulwama bombing of 2019. Throughout these crises, India upheld the treaty in the spirit of regional peace and cooperative water-sharing.

However, following the Pahalgam massacre of 22 April 2025, the threshold of tolerance was breached. India’s patience—guided yet firm under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi—finally wore thin, leading to the treaty’s indefinite suspension. This bold departure from precedent is not merely symbolic; it signals the emergence of a resolute, sovereign India ready to leverage its natural resources for domestic resilience and regional equity.

Though the suspension of the IWT is viewed by some as largely symbolic, legal experts argue otherwise. “It is not merely a diplomatic posture; it is a hydraulic realignment that, if executed properly, could resolve inter-state inequities and rejuvenate canal-fed farming.”

This period of treaty abeyance offers an unprecedented opportunity to address long-pending priorities. An expert recommends the expedited completion of all pending hydroelectric projects that had been delayed due to treaty-related limitations. With its proven institutional capacity and technical expertise, the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) is, in his view, well-placed to spearhead this accelerated implementation across the western river basins.

India should now consider launching new multipurpose infrastructure directly on the main stem of the Indus River. This would serve dual objectives—strengthening India’s developmental agenda and delivering a firm psychological message to Pakistan that underscores India’s sovereign intent and capacity to act decisively in the current geopolitical climate.

India previously utilised only a small fraction of its permitted storage under the IWT—just 5.6% of the 3.6 MAF allowance. With the treaty now suspended, projects such as Bursar Dam can be accelerated to deliver irrigation to 45,000 hectares through gravity-fed systems. Similarly, lift irrigation using solar power from the Chenab to South Kashmir’s orchards could transform 18,000 hectares into high-value crop zones.

Impact of Western River Diversions

Projects like Shahpurkandi (to be operational by June 2025) and the proposed Marhu Tunnel will collectively add 3.8 to 4 MAF to the Ravi-Beas system. This will enable:

- Expansion of canal irrigation in Punjab from 780,000 to 1.1 million hectares

- Fulfilment of 80% of Rajasthan’s Ravi-Beas water entitlement

- Improved water-sharing equity with Haryana

Risks and Recommendations

- Geopolitical and Ecological Considerations

Pakistan remains heavily reliant on the western rivers, and any significant diversion could affect over 12 million acres of its cropland, particularly in West Punjab and Sindh provinces. Furthermore, reduced sediment flow resulting from large-scale damming and storage infrastructure on the Chenab and Jhelum could impact the long-term fertility of Pakistan’s Punjab alluvial plains, necessitating artificial replenishment or compensatory agricultural practices.

That said, in the context of decades of cross-border hostility, this is perhaps the only language that Pakistan’s military establishment, responsible for orchestrating and sustaining terror networks within India, appears to understand. The suspension of the treaty, coupled with infrastructure-led deterrence, represents a calibrated and sovereign response to persistent proxy aggression.

- Fast-Track Key Projects

Prioritise the construction and commissioning of Bursar and Sawalkot dams, with the goal of achieving a cumulative storage and diversion capacity of 4 MAF by 2030.

- Reconstitute Water Tribunal with Limited Mandate

The Ravi-Beas Water Tribunal should be reconvened to adjudicate only the allocation of existing Ravi-Beas waters among Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

However, any additional waters diverted from the western rivers—such as from the Chenab or Jhelum—must remain outside the tribunal’s jurisdiction. These newly harnessed flows must be treated as exclusive entitlements of the two directly affected riparian states, Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir, in recognition of their role in facilitating and financing the necessary infrastructure.

Invest in Aquifer Recharge

At least 15% of the diverted water should be channelled into Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems in southern and south-western Punjab. These will serve to reverse groundwater depletion, stabilise the water table, and increase resilience against drought conditions.

While the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty may appear symbolic to sceptics, India’s proactive and ambitious infrastructure roadmap reveals a far deeper strategic intent. With the treaty’s legal shackles now dismantled, a new generation of multipurpose projects—Sawalkot, Bursar, the Marhu Tunnel, Baramulla Lift Scheme, the Jhelum Floodplain Management Programme, and the full realisation of the Ujh Multipurpose Project—can be conceived, executed, and delivered without the procedural fetters of international arbitration or Pakistani objections. These projects hold the promise not only of irrigating over 200,000 hectares in J&K and Punjab, but also of adding over 3,000 MW of clean hydropower capacity to the national grid.

Each of these initiatives must be accorded the status of National Projects, with 100% Central Government funding, covering both the irrigation and hydroelectric components. Such recognition is not merely a financial imperative but a political affirmation of national unity, security, and equitable development.

The opportunity now exists to replace ambiguity with engineering, dependency with sovereignty, and depletion with sustainability—ushering in a new era of water security and agricultural renaissance for Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and the Indian nation as a whole.

 

(KBS Sidhu is a former IAS Officer and Special Chief Secretary, Punjab.)