• Source:JND
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With only days to go until Canada goes to the polls in the federal election on April 28, recent polls indicate the Liberal Party, under new leadership from Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to possibly win a majority government. The strong advance voting turnout, along with tightening polls, indicates a dead heat between the Liberals and the opposition Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre.

Nearly two million voters made their way to the polls Friday, the opening day of four days of advance voting, an Elections Canada tally suggests, and a strong signal of public enthusiasm. Poll aggregators such as 338Canada now have the Liberals with 184 seats compared to 126 for the Conservatives, whereas Mainstreet Research has the Liberals reaching the majority threshold of 172 seats with the Conservatives behind on 136 seats. Mainstreet's daily tracking, however, also has the Conservatives in the lead in popular vote at 41 per cent, a point ahead of the Liberals.

Crucial Role Of Regional Dynamics

While Conservatives hold sway in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, Liberals are holding firm in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces. Interestingly enough, the Bloc Québécois, polling 25 per cent in Quebec, may be a kingmaker if there is a minority. Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet expressed his desire to work with Carney and revealed the Liberal leader reached out personally following the leaders' debates. He prefers a Liberal minority government, which might curtail Carney's legislative liberty.

Carney's Calm Leadership Resonates Amid Changing Priorities

Mark Carney's emergence as leader after Justin Trudeau's departure seems to have stirred up the Liberal faithful. Pundits opine that his message of "calming things down," as opposed to a promise of shaking things up, might be resonating with the voters who want consistent leadership. “Carney is not offering to shake things up. 

Carney is also perceived as a formidable leader on the global stage, with 45 per cent of respondents considering the Liberals are gaining traction. Yet, he has lost some credibility, decreasing by five points to 27 per cent. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada are riding on increasing domestic issues, particularly the affordability of housing and the cost of living. Their election platform, to be launched Tuesday, will seek to deliver the ultimate shot before election day.

Singh and NDP Advocate for Balance of Power

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is canvassing hard in British Columbia, particularly in ridings under threat of flipping. Following the Bloc's lead, Singh explained that Canada functions best with a balanced government, where no party has everything. "In this election, we want people to know something we've known all along: Canada works best when one party doesn't have all the power," Singh said to supporters.

With well over two million advance votes already counted and the last platforms yet to be introduced, the next few days are going to be critical. The possibility of a Liberal majority government within reach is tantalizing, but the close polls and fierce regional battles make the result far from guaranteed.