- By Shivangi Sharma
- Tue, 27 May 2025 05:35 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
A powerful earthquake, potentially as destructive as Japan’s 2011 disaster, could strike within the next seven years, scientists have warned. Geologists and disaster experts say a major fault line running through a densely populated region is long overdue for a massive quake, referred to as “The Big One.” California’s iconic San Andreas Fault, an 800-mile-long geological fracture that slices through the Bay Area, is now under intense scientific scrutiny. Experts have long warned about “The Big One,” a catastrophic magnitude 7.8 or greater earthquake.
Recent studies and simulations now suggest that this devastating quake is not only overdue, it could strike as soon as 2032. The US Geological Survey (USGS) issued a stark report noting, “The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032.” Their analysis comes as smaller quake swarms continue to rattle parts of California, especially near the northern tip of the San Andreas Fault.
According to Virginia Tech geoscientist Tina Dura, some parts of Northern California now fall within a “geological window of possibility,” meaning the area is highly vulnerable to sudden seismic shifts and unpredictable atmospheric phenomena, especially in conjunction with rising sea levels.
She described the situation as “imminent”, emphasising that while an exact date can’t be pinpointed, a major quake could happen at any moment, tomorrow, next week, or in the next two decades. Scientists warn it has been more than 300 years since the region experienced an earthquake of this magnitude, increasing the probability of a devastating event.
Lessons From Past
The last major quake stronger than 6.7 magnitude in the Bay Area was the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, which killed 63 people and injured nearly 4,000. Today, conditions are far more dangerous. Climate change has amplified the risks, sea levels are rising, and land is slowly sinking, which makes coastal cities far more vulnerable to flooding and tsunamis post-quake.
ALSO READ: Indian Emails Are Spam? New Zealand Minister’s Comment Sparks Outrage | Here’s What Happened Next
Dire Forecast: What Could Happen?
USGS and Virginia Tech researchers conducted tens of thousands of simulations using various time frames and sea-level rise scenarios to assess the potential impact of a major earthquake along the San Andreas Fault. The findings are alarming. Whether such a quake occurs today or by the year 2100, the projected damage is significant. If the earthquake were to strike now, it could put approximately 14,350 people at risk, damage or destroy around 22,500 buildings, and impact nearly 777 miles of roads.