Bangladesh Turmoil: Rising Extremism And Growing China-Pakistan Influence A Threat To India-Bangladesh Ties?

New Delhi, Prime Team. Since Bangladesh's independence, its early years have been marked by political instability. The country has witnessed 13 rulers and four military coups. Like Pakistan, Bangladesh also experienced a period of upheaval, but in recent years it has emerged as a prosperous and promising nation on the global stage. However, it was unable to sustain this prosperity for long. The erratic political power, internal conflicts between leaders and the public, and the fleeting economic prosperity prevented Bangladesh from becoming the 'Amar Sonar Bangla' it aspired to be. Recent protests have underscored Bangladesh's image as an unstable nation globally. This not only weakened its economy but also labelled it as democratically unstable. Over the past few decades, India and Bangladesh's relationship has evolved significantly. Since independence, India has consistently played the role of an elder brother, providing support and advice during difficult times. Whether the current state of India-Bangladesh relations will remain stable or if the warmth will diminish is something that time will reveal. The instability in Bangladesh raises a crucial question about the challenges it might pose to India's security. Another question is whether China and Pakistan will exploit this situation to bolster their position against India. In such circumstances, what strategy should India adopt to maintain equilibrium and enhance its growing global stature?

Reason Behind Recent Protests

There are two major parties in Bangladesh: one is the Awami League, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s daughter, Sheikh Hasina. The second party is the BNP, led by Khaleda Zia. Sheikh Hasina first won the election in 1996. After the 1971 Liberation War of Bangladesh, Mujibur Rahman, who is also known as the ‘father of the nation’, had introduced a law that 30 per cent reservation would be given to ‘Mukti Jodhas’ or freedom fighters who participated in the war. In 1997, Sheikh Hasina amended this law, stating that along with the freedom fighters, their children would also receive reservation, leading to rise in public resentment. While most were not opposed to the quota given to freedom fighters, they questioned its extension to their children. The quota amendment was met by protests which were held on a small scale and were easily suppressed. In 2011, Sheikh Hasina made another significant mistake by introducing a new law which further granted reservation to the grandchildren of freedom fighters. This led to widespread anger in Bangladesh, and the resentment kept growing.

During her continuous 15-year rule, Sheikh Hasina exercised dictatorial control over institutions like the Bangladesh Election Commission and the Broadcasting Council, appointing her people, which further fuelled public anger. In recent years, Bangladesh made significant economic progress, with their exports growing rapidly. As people started earning money, they began to feel that their democratic rights were being crushed. According to a report by the United Institute of Peace, there were multiple reasons behind this movement. While rising inflation and lack of jobs created discontent among students, the perception that the government was rigging the system in favour of the ruling elite further fuelled public dissatisfaction. The government's harsh response to the protests escalated tensions and contributed to the growing unrest.

Lt Colonel (Retired) JS Sodhi says that when the reservation issue resurfaced, Sheikh Hasina questioned, "Should I give reservations to Razakars?" Razakars were those who fought on Pakistan's side during Bangladesh's 1971 war of independence and are seen as traitors. Thus, the term 'Razakar' is considered extremely derogatory.

When Sheikh Hasina used the term 'Razakar' for the protesters, it further infuriated the agitating citizens. The widespread protests, which soon turned violent and went out of control, culminated in the end of Sheikh Hasina's 15-year tenure on August 5, forcing her to flee the country.

With Sheikh Hasina gone, the instability in Bangladesh provided an opportunity for Pakistan and China. Both countries had faced significant difficulties during Hasina’s rule. They reportedly began to encourage protests in Bangladesh and even funded them. A Congressional Research Service article mentioned that Bangladesh was slowly turning into a one-party state. Observers did not consider the 2018 election fair and transparent.

Like India, Bangladesh also has a constitutional head of state, the President, while the Prime Minister is the head of the administration. The President is elected every five years. The Prime Minister, appointed by the President, is chosen from among the members of Parliament who must prove their majority in the legislature. The Prime Minister forms their cabinet of ministers, whose appointments are approved by the President. Bangladesh’s Parliament is known as the Jatiyo (National) Parliament, comprising 300 elected members who serve a five-year term.

From Progress To Present Crisis

Bangladesh’s performance in the textile industry, particularly in readymade garment exports, has been commendable. This industry has helped 25 million people rise out of poverty and contributed significantly to the empowerment of women. In recent years, Bangladesh’s per capita income has been higher than India’s, and its performance in various human development indicators has been impressive.

However, after the Covid-19 pandemic, global demand weakened, leading to deteriorating conditions in Bangladesh. The country’s GDP growth rate began to slow down, and the balance of payments crisis worsened. Last year, Bangladesh had to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

To regain pre-Covid levels of economic growth and create employment opportunities, it is evident that Bangladesh needs to expand private investment beyond textile exports. However, the country seems to be struggling in this regard. Limited private investment has led to an increased reliance on government jobs among the youth. There have been allegations that the benefits of reservation in government jobs are being enjoyed by those affiliated with the ruling Awami League.

The Challenge Of Corruption And Poverty

Neeraj Singh Manhas, Senior Adviser for South Asia at the Parle Policy Initiative, says that corruption and poverty have been widespread challenges. These have affected governance and political stability in Bangladesh. Corruption has undermined the effectiveness of government institutions, leading to a cycle of political patronage and instability. Poverty has impeded development and fostered discontent, making it difficult to implement long-term, sustainable economic policies.

Dr Gunjan Singh, an Assistant Professor at OP Jindal Global University and a South Asian affairs expert, mentions that corruption has been a significant issue, with reports of senior officials under Sheikh Hasina being involved in scandals. Another notable aspect is that under Sheikh Hasina's rule, the development of her party's (Awami League) supporters has been prioritised. While it is true that per capita income has tripled in the past decade and economic growth has been rapid, it is also important to note who has benefited from this growth. If all manufacturing units were owned by Awami League supporters, it would naturally fuel public resentment. The growth has not been balanced.

According to Dr Gunjan, while manufacturing in Bangladesh has increased, there are no jobs for educated youths. The jobs created in the manufacturing sector have primarily been for low-skilled workers and women. This is why students protested against the quota provisions. Their argument was that, in a country where jobs are already scarce, the introduction of quotas would leave them with even fewer opportunities. The Supreme Court later scrapped the government order, but by then, the public discontent had already escalated.

Dr Gunjan adds that along with corruption, poverty continued to rise because the income growth was concentrated in a particular section of society. Bangladesh's economy was dependent on just one sector. There were also numerous reports which stated that families of opposition party supporters' were pressured and removed from jobs.

There was also widespread discontent among the general public against Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule. The way the government initially handled the student protests, where students died and police officers fired bullets indiscriminately, exacerbated the situation. However, the army had reportedly refused to open fire on students and protesters. This indicated that even within the military, discontent was brewing to some extent.

The UK's Foreign Minister, David Lammy, advocated for peace, stating that in recent weeks, Bangladesh had faced unprecedented levels of violence and loss of life. The army chief in Bangladesh had declared a transitional period. All parties are urged to work towards ending violence, restoring peace, and normalising the situation to prevent further loss of life.

The Role Of Other Countries In Bangladesh

According to Manhas, external countries have also played a role in Bangladesh’s political landscape. During the Cold War, major powers such as the Soviet Union and the United States, as well as regional powers like India and China, were involved in Bangladesh’s politics. Recently, India has had a significant influence, often seen as a defence ally. China has increased its presence through investments and diplomatic relations. These actions are sometimes viewed as interference in shaping Bangladesh’s foreign policy and internal decisions.

Dr Gunjan argues that external powers have played a minimal role in the recent changes in Bangladesh. Instability there benefits no country. During Sheikh Hasina's 15-year tenure, her relations with India were good, but her relations with China were also positive. She allowed China to invest under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Sheikh Hasina balanced relations between India and China well, knowing that India’s support would be more beneficial in the long term. There were some statements about the United States’ role in toppling her government, but I do not believe it seeks instability there, says Dr Gunjan. The US was certainly exerting pressure through sanctions.

The US has imposed sanctions on many countries. At one time, it even imposed sanctions on India. It has sanctions on China and Iran too. The first step the US takes to apply pressure is usually sanctions. The US market is huge, and they have the financial power to influence others. Additionally, other countries rely on them for technology. The US is a major market for Bangladesh's ready-made garments. When the US imposes sanctions, it halts many activities. Bangladesh is an emerging economy and has been one of the fastest-growing in South Asia over the past 15 years.

Manhas explains that Bangladesh’s political climate has developed amidst various social movements. Movements like the 2013 Shahbag protests, which demanded harsh punishment for war criminals, demonstrated significant public participation in political processes. More recently, student-led movements against the government’s job reservation system forced the government to directly address public grievances.

The Catalyst Role Of The 2024 Elections

Gaurav Goyal, an expert on International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Strategic Affairs, notes that as the January 2024 election for Bangladesh’s National Parliament approached, the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), increased pressure through large-scale rallies, demanding that the elections be held under a caretaker government. The BNP insisted that only a neutral, non-partisan administration could ensure free and fair elections. However, the ruling Awami League, under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (in power since 2009), was adamant about holding the elections under its own leadership.

Gaurav explains that, from the beginning of 2023, the US, the UK, and some EU members had shown interest in the Bangladesh elections. Representatives from these countries met with the opposition and Awami League leaders, and the Election Commission to discuss the prospects of 'free, fair, and participatory elections'. During these meetings, the BNP declared that it would boycott the elections if its demand for a caretaker government was not met. The Awami League responded by pointing out that the 15th Constitutional Amendment, passed by the Jatiya Sangsad (National Parliament) in June 2011, abolished the practice of holding elections under caretaker governments in Bangladesh.

According to Gaurav, the US, the UK, and the EU supported the BNP’s claim that holding free and fair elections would be difficult under the Awami League’s government. They emphasised that the only way to guarantee equal opportunities was for the Awami government to step down. These same countries had praised the 2009 elections as “the most free and fair elections since the restoration of parliamentary democracy in 1991”. Western countries began to pressure Sheikh Hasina to step down and meet the BNP's demands.

In the past, the US had also tried to promote Western-style democracy in Bangladesh. Joe Biden excluded Bangladesh from his 2021 and 2023 summits. After that, his administration ignored Prime Minister Hasina during her visit to the World Bank in Washington, DC. Subsequently, the White House announced several punitive measures, particularly against Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), which the White House believed had helped Sheikh Hasina in previous elections.

Western pressure emboldened the BNP, which organised large rallies against the government. In June 2023, Jamaat-e-Islami held a massive rally in Dhaka for the first time in 10 years.

Shrinking political space has drawn Sheikh Hasina closer to China. This is a cause for concern for India, along with the United States and the West, as the foundation of Bangladesh-China bilateral relations has been primarily rooted in defence partnerships. China accounts for 72 per cent of Bangladesh’s defence supplies, making it the second-largest buyer of Chinese arms after Pakistan. Since 2010, Bangladesh has purchased over USD 2 billion worth of arms from China.

In March 2023, Hasina inaugurated Bangladesh's first submarine base near Kutubdia Channel in the Bay of Bengal, which will house two Chinese submarines. Chinese experts have also trained Bangladeshi personnel to operate the base and submarines.

Meanwhile, the US offered Sheikh Hasina free real-time access to satellite data to monitor the impacts of climate change. However, this raises questions about whether the offer was solely for monitoring climate change. It could lead to suspicions about US intervention in other countries under the guise of promoting democratic principles and supporting democratic movements globally. Manju Seth, a former Indian diplomat to Bangladesh, says, "It’s hard to say whether the military was backed by anyone, but they weren’t acting to stop the protests. It seemed they received a message from somewhere."

China Could Have Fuelled Political Instability

Gaurav Goyal suggests that the violence in Bangladesh before Sheikh Hasina left the country raised concerns that China could have fostered political instability to spread unrest and weaken the Hasina government. This strategy may have been aimed at countering New Delhi’s growing influence.

In a statement on July 14, 2024, after meeting Modi in New Delhi following the June elections in India, Sheikh Hasina explicitly prioritised India over China in the USD 1 billion Teesta River project. She was also frustrated with Beijing’s failure to fulfil its financial aid promise and for not receiving proper diplomatic protocol. She cut short her trip to China and returned to Dhaka a day earlier.

Gaurav Goyal believes Bangladesh has become aware of the negative consequences of Chinese involvement and wishes to avoid them. They were mindful of their national interests when dealing with Beijing. Choosing not to proceed with the Teesta project in partnership with China wasn’t a sudden decision.

He says, "I’ve seen Yunus and members of his advisory council use terms like ‘reset’, ‘rebuild’ and ‘strengthen’, which implies reconstructing something in need of repair."

Manju Seth, a former Indian diplomat to Bangladesh, remarks that China is unhappy with India’s relations and trade with its neighbours. China wants to be the sole priority. Thus, China would likely seek to exploit this opportunity. There’s no doubt China is ahead of us; it’s trying to assert its influence everywhere. In places like the Maldives and Sri Lanka, China has made multiple attempts. India will need to strengthen its security perimeter further.

Lifting Ban On Jamaat Endangers Hindu Minorities In Bangladesh

Gunjan Singh points out that the interim government has lifted the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing. Jamaat has been trying to re-emerge as a political party for some time, and they won a few seats in the last election. Sheikh Hasina had banned them, calling them a terrorist organisation. Lifting the ban on Jamaat will likely trouble the US as well since it is considered a terrorist group. India has banned Jamaat. The ban’s removal will also increase US pressure on Pakistan to keep Jamaat under control. Since China has investments in Bangladesh, it could also pressure Pakistan regarding Jamaat.

Gaurav Goyal mentions that the head of the interim government, Mohammad Yunus, spoke of stopping attacks on Hindus and other religious minorities after Sheikh Hasina left the country. In his opinion, Yunus feared potential anger against minorities and Hindus. Among those who faced violence were Awami League supporters, including many Hindu party supporters. The violence against Hindus was primarily due to the anger directed at Hasina, which Goyal believes may have eventually subsided.

However, Yunus' decision to lift the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami has placed minorities, particularly Hindus, at double risk. The BNP (whose leaders have also been released) centres its politics around an anti-India and anti-Hindu agenda. Whenever the BNP has come to power, minorities, especially Hindus, have faced persecution. The party supports religious Bangladeshi nationalism and provides protection to Jamaat-e-Islami, whose goal is to establish Bangladesh as an Islamic state governed by strict Sharia law.

Gaurav Goyal notes that the BNP clearly leans towards Pakistan, which is why Hindus will likely be targeted by anti-India sentiment. However, he also believes that international pressure on the interim government to act against the BNP and extremist groups will be crucial for governance.

In the 1950s, the Hindu population in what was then East Pakistan was around 22 per cent, but it has now dwindled to 7-8 per cent. While several factors, such as persecution, conversion, lower birth rates among Hindus, and higher birth rates among Muslims, have contributed to this decline, political events like these have often served as flashpoints for communal violence, with Hindus bearing the brunt. If unchecked, the BNP will help resurrect Jamaat, posing a significant threat to a secular Bangladesh.

According to Goyal, this situation will heighten security concerns, particularly in India. New Delhi will likely raise the issue with Bangladesh and demand action against communal forces. Goyal also anticipates protests and rallies from those concerned about violence against Hindus and other minorities, which will increase pressure on the interim government.