Israel-Hamas War Shatters Hopes For Peace, Experts Suggest India Should Remain Neutral

The recent outbreak of war between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas has caused a major disruption in global politics. The conflict has exacerbated the divide between the two main camps in the world, with the United States and its allies supporting Israel, and Russia, China, and the Arab world supporting Palestine. Before the war, there was hope that the two-year-old Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab countries, would lead to a broader peace process in the region. However, the war has put those hopes in jeopardy. 

The war has also undermined recent efforts to de-escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The war in Ukraine had already strained relations between the West and Russia, and the Israel-Palestine conflict has only made the situation worse. 

The war is likely to have a significant impact on India, which has a complex relationship with both Israel and Palestine. India has traditionally maintained a neutral stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but the war has put pressure on the government to take a more definitive position. So far, India has maintained a balanced approach, condemning the violence on both sides. However, the war is likely to force India to make a difficult choice between its two allies.

Abraham Accords And Israel-Gulf Normalisation Process On Sidelines 

Former Indian ambassador Yogesh Gupta told Jagran Prime that the impact of this war on the world and India will depend on how long it lasts. Unrest has begun in Saudi Arabia. America's attempt was to restore peace in the Middle East. UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco were its flag bearers. The establishment of peace here was being strengthened by the return of Syria to Arab countries. But the new developments have dealt a blow to the Abraham Accords and the Israel-Gulf normalisation process. He says that it is inevitable that this will have an impact on global politics. The world was already divided into camps, this war has served to widen the gap and bitterness. As far as progressive countries are concerned, they do not want to be a part of any side.

The recent war between Israel and Palestine has raised concerns about a new Cold War in the Middle East. Some experts believe that the war was sparked by a number of factors, including a strategic agreement between China and Palestine, Iran's growing military power, and Israel's internal problems. 

Retired Lieutenant Colonel J S Sodhi, a military analyst, believes that the timing of the attack was significant. Israel's Simchat Torah is a day of celebration, and it is possible that Israel was not as vigilant as it could have been. Sodhi also cites three main causes of the war: The strategic agreement between China and Palestine, which could have been seen as a threat to Israel. Iran's growing military power, which could have led to a fear of encirclement among Israeli leaders and Israel's internal problems, such as the rise of the far-right, which could have made it more difficult for the Israeli government to reach a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians. 

Professor Humayun Akhtar Nazmi, an expert on West Asia studies at Jamia Millia Islamia, believes that the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab countries, were a positive step. However, he argues that the war has set back these efforts. He also notes that the United Arab Emirates, while officially neutral in the conflict, is likely to support Palestine indirectly. 

The war between Israel and Palestine has had a significant impact on the Middle East. It has led to a new round of violence and instability in the region, and it has raised the spectre of a new Cold War. It is too early to say what the long-term consequences of the war will be, but it is clear that it has had a profound impact on the region.

Global Politics And A Divided World 

It was believed during the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war that it would be a small conflict, but now, after one-and-a-half years have passed, the entire world is affected by it. If the Israel-Palestine conflict continues for a long time, other countries will also become involved. There is a political rivalry between Palestine and Israel. To resolve this political dispute, Russia, America, and China will have to focus on finding a solution. As for Iran, the more its military strength increases, the more it will support Hamas. The Russia-Ukraine war has worsened the global situation, so there is a need to end this war soon. The Israel-Saudi Arabia agreement will also have an impact on it. The peace process in the Middle East will also be affected by this. If the Middle East becomes nuclear-powered, Iran can use it, says Lt Col Sodhi.  

Humayun Akhtar Najimi says that Hamas has nothing of its own. The chief of Hamas visited Russia four months ago. Iran is helping Palestine, he says. In the current world, every country wants to avoid destruction, even if any country in the world is ruined. 15 out of the 17 hijackers in the 9/11 attacks were from Saudi Arabia. Because of this, Afghanistan was destroyed.

Impact On India

Former diplomat Yogesh Gupta says that terrorism is a major issue for us. We have always raised our voice against terrorism on every global platform. Pakistan-backed terrorism has inflicted several serious wounds on India. Similarly, the emerging Sikh terrorism in Canada is also becoming a headache for India. Some Western countries, including Canada, are silently supporting it. In such a situation, dealing with terrorism is the most crucial for us. 

It is said that a prolonged war situation will have an impact on India. India always maintains that the solution to any problem should be through diplomacy. War is not the solution to any problem. This should be the reaction given by all countries. 

Professor Humayun Akhtar Najmi says that our policy regarding Israel and Palestine has been one of balancing acts recently. There are several examples of this. During the Gulf War, America sought help from India. They wanted refuelling from Mumbai, but Parliament rejected the proposal. We have had relations with Israel since 1992. India will make every effort to maintain a state of equilibrium. Israel and Palestine have been fighting since 1948. No one wins in a war, there is only defeat. We cannot leave Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. We must remain neutral, says Najmi.

Impact On Trade 

If we look at the import and export between India and Israel, in the fiscal year 2022-23, India imported around 1,400 different types of goods from Israel. This includes pearls, gemstones, fertilisers, electronic components, and crude oil, among others. This trade amounts to approximately USD 2.32 billion. 

On the other hand, India exported around 3,500 commodities to Israel. In 2022-23, this amounted to approximately USD 8.45 billion. India supplies cut diamonds, jewellery, consumer electronics, and engineering goods to Israel. Both countries are in talks regarding a free trade agreement since 2022. Yogesh Gupta states that India is a major trading partner for Israel. India is Israel’s third-largest trading partner in Asia as India exports a significant amount of commodities to Israel. We have no personal opposition to Palestine, but our national interests are aligned with Israel. 

Impact On Crude Oil Supply 

The first impact of this conflict is being seen on the supply of crude oil. If the conflict spreads throughout West Asia and more countries become involved, the supply of crude oil will be affected. This will have an impact on prices, causing an increase in the cost of oil. In India, the prices of petrol and diesel are linked to various other commodities. If transportation costs rise, the prices of essential goods will also increase. Israel is the third-largest trading partner for India in Asia. Israeli companies have investments in India. This business could be affected in the situation of conflict. 

Impact on Defense Sector 

Lieutenant Colonel J S Sodhi states that there will be an impact on India from the perspective of security and trade. Israel is the third-largest source of imports for defence equipment in India. In addition, there is trade worth approximately USD 10 billion. If the conflict between Israel and Hamas prolongs, Israel's trade with countries including India will decrease because it will first have to fulfil domestic challenges. There will be a significant impact on our defence exports. Israel has been assisting India in the "Make in India" initiative.

New Kind of Warfare

Lieutenant Colonel JS Sodhi says that no major army in the world can even think of what Hamas did. They jammed the electromagnetic spectrum of the Israeli Defense Forces. Israel is considered one of the most powerful armies in the world. This attack shows how strong Hamas's planning and training were. In the coming times, battles will be more often fought from a distance. Former Indian ambassador Yogesh Gupta says that in the present time, technology is considered the most important in war, but the importance of traditional warfare has been seen in this war. In such a situation, it is necessary to think that we will have to keep a balance between technology and traditional warfare.

Abraham Accord

The Abraham Accord, signed on September 15, 2020, is a bilateral agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain for the normalisation of Arab-Israeli relations. As part of the double agreement, both the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recognised Israel's sovereignty, which made it possible to establish full diplomatic relations. It is noteworthy that prior to this, in 1994, peace agreements were signed between Israel and Jordan.

Oslo Accord

Under the Oslo Accord, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank were divided into three zones. Zone A was kept under full Palestinian control. Zone B was where the administration was Palestinian, but security remained in the hands of Israel. Zone C was under complete Israeli control. After the Oslo II Accord in 1995, several major cities came under Palestinian control in the West Bank. These included Hebron, Jericho, Bethlehem, Ramallah, Qalqilya, Tulkarm, Jenin, and Nablus. In addition, the cities of the Gaza Strip were also given to Palestine, including Rafah, Khan Yunis, Deir al-Balah, Jabalia, and An-Najla. After this agreement, it seemed that the dispute between Israel and Palestine had come to an end. Now both countries will move forward peacefully.

Refugees

Today, approximately 5.6 million Palestinian refugees, primarily descendants of those who fled in 1948, reside in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, as well as Lebanon, Syria and Israel. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, nearly half of the registered refugees are stateless, with many living in overcrowded camps. Palestinians have long demanded the right for refugees to return with their millions of descendants. Israel maintains that any repatriation of Palestinian refugees should occur outside its borders.

Israeli Settlements

Most countries consider Jewish settlements built on land seized by Israel in 1967 to be illegal. Israel justifies its claim to this land based on historical and Biblical connections. The continuous expansion of Israeli settlements remains one of the most contentious issues between Israel, Palestine and the international community.

Status of Jerusalem

Palestinians seek to establish East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state, while Israel insists that Jerusalem should remain its capital. Israel's claim over the eastern part of Jerusalem has not been internationally recognised. In 2018, the Trump administration recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital and relocated the American embassy there.

Israeli-Palestinian Geographical Situation

There are two separate regions in Israel, the eastern and the southern-western parts. The West Bank is located in the eastern part, and the Gaza Strip is considered a separate entity. The West Bank and Gaza Strip are recognised as Palestine. The Palestinian National Authority governs the West Bank, while Hamas controls the Gaza Strip, which is an extremist organisation opposed to Israel.

(Note: This story has been translated by Ankit Kumar for Jagran English.)