• Source:JND

After a week in the US, Israel's war with Iran, which started when the US and Israel launched a joint military assault on Tehran, speculations have begun to spread whether it was a miscalculated step by Washington. The attack occurred during ongoing nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran and followed Trump’s inflammatory statement that regime change would be the best thing to happen in Iran. Tehran suffered a massive loss in the war, both in terms of life and infrastructure, as it continues to retaliate, targeting enemy assets in the region. Now the reports suggest that even large-scale attacks on Iran cannot throw the Islamic regime out of power.

As per a classified report by the National Intelligence Council, it is highly unlikely to oust the entrenched military and clerical establishment of Iran. The intelligence report comes amid the Trump administration and Israel’s claim that harsher attacks on Iran are yet to come. While Trump officials have said that the military campaign has ‘only just begun’, Israel’s Netanyahu claimed that ‘surprise’ was coming Iran’s way.

As per the Washington Post, the findings, confirmed by officials, raise doubt about Trump’s plan to destroy Iran’s leadership and place leadership of his choice. The report was compiled a week before the US and Israel attacked Iran, and claims that whether an extensive attack or a narrowly tailored campaign against the Iranian leadership, it is unlikely to oust the regime, as Iran’s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve the continuity of Power.

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People, aware of the classified report, spoke on the condition of anonymity with the Washington Post and said that the report described the possibility of Iran’s opposition taking control as ‘unlikely’,

What Is National Intelligence Council (NIC)

The National Intelligence Council, or NIC, features veteran analysts who compose classified assessments that represent 18 intelligence agencies of Washington. It could not be ascertained whether US President Donald Trump was briefed about the report before he approved the attack on Iran.

“President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement.

NIC’s assessment of Iran’s retaliatory capabilities shows analysts' deep knowledge of the Islamic Republic’s operational technique and its complex military and clerical establishments, Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, was quoted as saying by The Washington Post.

Is Succession Process Underway In Iran

The report suggests that the succession process is underway in Iran, but under the threat of extensive attacks from the US and Israel. The replacement of the Supreme Leader will be chosen by Iran’s clerical body and Assembly experts, with members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and others within the country’s security establishment also playing an influential role.

Why It's Not Easy To Overthrow Iran’s Regime

The deceased Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, learning from the past experiences of instability in the country, had built Iran’s establishment into an impenetrable fortress by putting robust institutions to deal with leadership crises.

The Khamenei regime established two key institutions to prevent deviation from Islamic principles and ensure that power is not consolidated in one hand. These two institutions are the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts. While the council ensures that the administration does not deviate from Islamic principles, the Assembly of Experts select and supervises the supreme leader.

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The Expediency Council is responsible for resolving major disagreements, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with the intelligence agencies, safeguards the revolution against both internal and external threats. These institutions were built as a safety net in times of crisis.

Who Rules Iran In Absense Of Supreme Leader

According to Article 111 of the Iranian constitution, in the absence of the Supreme Leader, the President, the Judiciary Chief, and a member of the Guardian Council act as collective leadership until a new Supreme Leader is elected.


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