- By Nidhi Giri
- Wed, 14 Jan 2026 06:23 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
United States President Donald Trump is once again threatening military action against Iran. The arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appears to have emboldened the Trump administration. At the same time, Iran is experiencing its largest wave of anti-government protests in years.
Could The US Actually Attack Iran? 5 Reasons
1. Despite Trump's aggressive statements, the US military has yet to make any major deployments to the Middle East. The Pentagon has neither sent an aircraft carrier nor openly prepared for an attack. America's Gulf allies are also not enthusiastic about using US bases in their territories to attack Iran.
2. Experts believe that a US attack could only benefit the Iranian government. This would allow the Iranian leadership to suppress internal opposition by portraying it as a foreign conspiracy and thus mobilise the public.
3. Trump may be talking about military intervention, but military resources in the region are weak. According to the British newspaper The Guardian, the US has reduced its troops and resources in the Middle East in recent months. No US aircraft carrier has been deployed in the Middle East since October.
The USS Gerald R Ford has been sent to the Caribbean, and the USS Nimitz has been deployed to the US West Coast. If an attack occurs, the US will need to obtain permission to use airbases in countries like Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Oman, or Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, protecting these countries and US bases from Iranian retaliation will be a significant challenge.
4. One option could be an attack similar to the one carried out in June 2025, when the US targeted the Fordow nuclear facility in Rann with B-2 bombers. However, such an attack in a densely populated area could cause significant loss of life and property.
5. Iran has already warned that if attacked, it will target US bases and ships, regardless of their location. Although Iran's military strength was damaged in the 12-day war with Israel, it still possesses a limited missile capability.
Iran Is Rebuilding Missile Launch Sites
According to reports, many of Iran's missile launch sites are located deep within the mountains and are being renovated. The Guardian reports that Iran possesses approximately 2,000 heavy ballistic missiles. If fired in large numbers, they could overwhelm US and Israeli air defense systems. Therefore, an attack by the US could pose not only a military but also a strategic risk.
Another major challenge is identifying targets for strikes. Protests in Iran are widespread, making it difficult to single out military targets. There's always the risk of misdirection and civilian casualties, especially in urban areas. This could also damage America's international image.
Experts believe such an attack could further strengthen the Iranian government, as it could mobilize the public by portraying it as foreign interference. The history of US interference in Iran dates back to the 1953 coup. Therefore, the government could present any attack as reopening old wounds.
According to Roxane Farmanfarmaian, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, Iran's government and security apparatus are also well-organized and strong. She said the government wants to maintain control of the roads and borders at all costs, and the high number of deaths reflects this determination.
What Options Does Khamenei Have ?
If the US were to directly attack Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it would raise serious questions about international law. Such a move could lead to a protracted military conflict. Furthermore, it does not guarantee a regime change in Iran. Khamenei has already compiled a list of potential successors, so the end of leadership does not necessarily lead to the end of the regime.