• Source:PTI
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Moody's Analytics on Friday projected that India's economy will expand by 6.1 percent in 2024, lower than the 7.7 percent growth recorded in 2023.  It said output in India remains 4 percent below where it would have been without the COVID pandemic and its various aftershocks, such as supply chain disruptions and military conflicts overseas.

"Economies in South and Southeast Asia will see some of the strongest output gains this year, but their performance is flattered by a delayed post-pandemic rebound. We expect India's GDP to grow 6.1 percent in 2024 after 7.7 percent last year," Moody's Analytics said.

In its report, titled 'APAC Outlook: Listening Through the Noise', Moody's Analytics said that the region overall is performing better than other parts of the world. The APAC (Asia Pacific) economy is expected to expand by 3.8 percent this year, compared to the global economy's growth rate of 2.5 percent, it said.

Moody's Analytics said that looking at GDP relative to its trajectory before the pandemic indicates that India and Southeast Asia have witnessed some of the largest output losses in the world and are only beginning to recover. Regarding inflation, it stated that the outlook for China and India is more uncertain.

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"Inflation in India is at the opposite extreme, with recent consumer price inflation rates hovering around 5 percent, close to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2 to 6 percent and without clear evidence of a trend towards slowing price pressures," said the report authored by Stefan Angrick, Senior Economist, and Jeemin Bang, Associate Economist at Moody's Analytics.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank noted that uncertainties in food prices continued to weigh on the inflation trajectory, and maintained a 4.5 percent retail inflation projection for the current fiscal year 2024-25. The RBI also stated that ongoing geopolitical tensions pose an upside risk to commodity prices and supply chains. The RBI projected June quarter inflation at 4.9 percent and September quarter inflation at 3.8 percent. Inflation is projected to be 4.6 percent and 4.7 percent in the December and March quarters, respectively.

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(With PTI's Inputs)

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