Assam Election 2026: Exit poll surveys released on Wednesday have projected a strong win for the NDA in the 2026 Assam Assembly elections. The predictions suggest that the BJP-led alliance is likely to retain power in the state, with a clear lead over the Congress. The 2026 Assam Assembly elections were held in a single phase on April 9 across all 126 constituencies. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.

According to the Axis My India exit poll, the NDA is expected to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, while Congress is projected to win 24 to 36 seats. The Matrize exit poll also shows a similar trend, giving the BJP-led alliance 85 to 95 seats and Congress 25 to 32 seats, with other parties expected to win 6 to 12 seats. Overall, exit polls suggest a clear lead for the NDA in the 2026 Assam elections.

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Assam Exit Polls Comparison: 2021 vs 2026

In the Assam Assembly elections of 2021, exit polls correctly predicted a win for the BJP-led alliance. Most surveys showed the NDA crossing or near the majority mark of 64 seats. While the figures were in different ranges, most agreed that the NDA would form the government. Axis My India had projected 75-85 seats for the NDA, while Republic-CNX estimated 74-84 seats. CVoter predicted 58-71 seats for the NDA and 53-66 seats for the Congress.

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2021 Final Results:

The final result in 2021 matched these predictions closely. The NDA won 75 seats; Congress and its allies won 50 seats, and 1 seat went to an Independent. This showed that exit polls were largely accurate with small differences.

In comparison, exit poll trends for 2026 also suggest a strong performance for the NDA in Assam. Most pollsters have again predicted a clear lead for the BJP-led alliance over the Congress. Across different surveys, the NDA is projected to remain ahead of the Congress and secure a majority. On the other hand, Congress is expected to stay in second place with a lower seat count.

Himanta Biswa Sarma Predicts 'Triple Digits'

Earlier, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had stated that he wouldn't be surprised if the BJP-led NDA secured numbers in triple digits. Speaking to ANI, Sarma said, “It's not right to talk about the election results too early, but it wouldn't be surprising if the BJP-led alliance NDA reaches triple digits.”

Hailing the higher voter turnout, he said, “Traditionally, the societies that actively participate in voting have certainly voted in higher numbers, but the society where traditionally there isn't much voting has also participated enthusiastically this time.” The state had recorded a high voter turnout of 85.21 per cent, which is higher than the 82.04 per cent turnout registered in the 2021 elections.

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Disclaimer: Exit polls are based on surveys conducted with voters. These are estimates, projections and analysis of voter sentiment. They provide a general trend and broad idea of the poll outcome, but they are not the final results. Final results will be announced by the Election Commission of India on May 4.


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