- By Aalok Sensharma
- Sun, 26 Apr 2020 10:23 AM (IST)
- Source:JND
New Delhi | Jagran News Desk: Amid the alarming spike in the number of coronavirus cases in the national capital, the state government might extend the ongoing lockdown post may 3, said a top Delhi government official.
Dr SK Sarin, Chairman of Delhi government's committee on combating coronavirus, has suggested that the ongoing lockdown will have to be continued till mid-May for the epidemic curve to flatten.
"India is still on the ascending limb of the epidemic curve and so, to ease the restrictions will mean the cases will multiply uncontrollably. And, Delhi has a large number of containment zones, so it will be wise to extend it," he said, as quoted by news agency PTI.
"The lockdown will have to be extended till May 16 as that is when the epidemic curve is likely to start declining, which happens after the flattening of the curve," he added.
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Explaining why the lockdown should be extended till May 16, Dr Sarin said that the first coronavirus case was reported in Delhi on March 3 and mathematical modelling of the pandemic from China suggests that it takes about 10 weeks for the epidemic curve to decline.
Speaking about the flattening and decline in the coronavirus curve, he referred to "reproduction number" of the cases while adding that after the flattening of the curve, its decline also needs to be seen over a few weeks to make any assessment.
The curve is said to flatten when the reproduction number is one, meaning for example, 10 people giving infection to only 10 people, and the decline is said to happen if the reproduction number is less than one, meaning 10 people (primary cases) passing on the infection to less than 10 persons, say 8 people (secondary cases) and those persons, in turn, passing it on to less than eight people, and so on.
The number of coronavirus cases have surged at an alarming rate in the city-state. With a spike of 111 new cases in last 24 hours, the tally in Delhi has reached 2,625 with 54 deaths.
Earlier, there were reports that Delhi might extend the lockdown by two weeks to flatten the coronavirus curve.
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The lockdown was first imposed on March 24 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi till April 14. Looking at the increase in coronavirus cases, it was extended till May 3. The Centre, however, has provided some reliefs to people and has allowed neighbourhood and standalone shops to reopen.
Meanwhile, a Times of India report has said that five states – Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab and Odisha – have suggested the Centre to extend the lockdown.
PM Modi will meet the chief ministers of all states and union territories on Monday via video conference, following which a decision on extension of lockdown will be taken.
So far, the coronavirus has affected more than 26,000 people and claimed the lives of over 800 in India.
(With PTI inputs)
