- El Nino to intensify, affecting India's winter and monsoon.
- Fewer cold spells and reduced rainfall forecast for India.
- Agriculture faces significant impact due to decreased precipitation.
Jagran Bureau, New Delhi: The rapidly strengthening El Nino in the Pacific Ocean could impact not only monsoon rains but also the winter season. Meteorologists believe that it will be cold between December and February, but the gap between the cold and hot days may increase.
This change will be particularly significant in northwest India, where western disturbances play a significant role. These weather systems bring winter rain to northern India and snowfall to the mountains. There is a strong correlation between El Nino and western disturbances, so in some situations, western disturbances can become more active.
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El Nino To Become Very Strong In October-December
The latest forecast by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that El Nino will become very strong in October-December.
This could be the strongest El Niño since 1950, with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean already two degrees Celsius above normal.
When water becomes unusually warm, the entire air circulation, pressure, and current pattern changes, with effects that can reach thousands of kilometres away.
In meteorological terms, this is called a teleconnection. This change affects India's temperature, rainfall, and the western disturbances that occur during winter.
The monsoon will depart India before El Nino reaches its strongest. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reports that El Nino will peak in November, during which time the Pacific Ocean surface temperature could be about 2.9 degrees Celsius above normal.
Meteorologists said that this does not mean that winter will end in the entire country, but the number of long cold spells and cold wave days may decrease.
Citing a study, the Meteorological Department has said that during the El Nino years from 1971 to 2010, the number of cold wave days and their extent were found to be less than normal.
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Effects Already Visible
The effects of El Nino are already becoming visible. So far, India has received about 13 per cent less rainfall than normal. Skymet has lowered its initial forecast to 85 per cent of the long-term average (LPA) for the entire monsoon season and has put the probability of drought at 70 per cent. In April, it had forecast 94 per cent.
It has estimated rainfall for the entire monsoon season at 90 per cent of the LPA, with an overall probability of falling into the below-normal or below-normal category at 84 per cent.
Less rainfall will have a direct impact on agriculture, because a major part of the country's annual rainfall occurs in these four months and Kharif crops depend on it.