J-K Govt On Brink As 25 NC MLAs Threaten Mass Resignation; BJP Still Short Of Numbers | Explained

JKNC Crisis: Days after the cabinet expansion in Jammu and Kashmir, reports have emerged that around 25 National Conference (NC) MLAs are unhappy with the party leadership's functioning. The legislators have reportedly issued an ultimatum to the party high command, threatening to withdraw their support if their demands are not met within 14 days.

According to India Today, citing sources, the rebel MLAs have warned that they will march towards Raj Bhavan and formally withdraw their support to the Omar Abdullah-led government if the party leadership fails to address their demands within the deadline.

Adding to the pressure on the NC, Srinagar Lok Sabha MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi announced on Saturday that he would resign from his parliamentary seat and the party on November 3. Mehdi has accused the JKNC of failing to fulfil its poll promises or even take steps towards implementing them. His announcement has brought the growing tensions within the party into the open, fuelling speculation about an internal rift.

This has raised a key question--Could the Jammu and Kashmir government lose its majority if the rebel MLAs withdraw their support?

Can Omar Abdullah's government fall?

Yes, the Omar Abdullah-led government in Jammu and Kashmir could face a serious threat if 25 National Conference MLAs formally withdraw their support. The JKNC emerged as the single-largest party in the 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, winning 42 seats, while the BJP finished second with 29 seats.

The INDIA bloc secured a majority, winning 49 of the 90 elected seats, with the JKNC accounting for the largest share.

Here is how the numbers could affect the government's survival

- The Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly has 90 elected seats, putting the simple majority mark at 46.

- The National Conference won 42 seats. The government also has the support of six Congress MLAs, six Independent MLAs and one CPI(M) MLA.

- If 25 NC MLAs withdraw their support, the number of legislators backing the party leadership could fall to 17.

- Even if all 13 other supporting legislators from the Congress, among the Independents and from the CPI(M) continue to back Omar Abdullah, the government's strength would fall to 30 (17 NC MLAs + 13 supporting legislators).

- This would leave the government well below the majority mark of 46, pushing it into a hung Assembly and potentially putting its survival at risk if the numbers are reflected in a floor test.

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Why are rebel MLAs threatening to withdraw their support?

Tensions within the National Conference reportedly escalated on October 27 after the Omar Abdullah-led government expanded its Cabinet, reportedly to strike a balance between younger and more experienced leaders.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah inducted four new ministers into the Jammu and Kashmir Council of Ministers: Ali Mohammad Sagar (MLA from Khanyar, Srinagar), Shamim Firdous (MLA from Habba Kadal, Srinagar), Mir Saifullah (MLA from Trehgam, Kupwara) and Altaf Ahmad Wani, also known as Altaf Ahmad Kaloo.

According to reports, the rebel MLAs have demanded the removal of Omar Abdullah's advisor and some senior ministers. They have also sought a complete overhaul of the government, including the removal of all existing ministers from their portfolios and the immediate removal of the Chief Minister's advisor.

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Their primary demand is that all current ministers be relieved of their portfolios within 14 days. They have also sought the immediate removal of the Chief Minister's advisor, India Today reported.

The rebel legislators are also seeking the fulfilment of the party's ideological commitments and key promises made in its election manifesto. Among their demands is the restoration of Article 370.

Meanwhile, adding to the NC's concerns, Srinagar Lok Sabha MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi announced that he would resign from his parliamentary seat and the party on November 3. Mehdi has accused the JKNC of failing to fulfil its poll promises or take meaningful steps towards implementing them, bringing the growing tensions within the party further into the open.

He is scheduled to address the public on November 3, the death anniversary of Aga Syed Mehdi, at Behisht-e-Zehra Park in Budgam, where he is expected to formally act on his resignation announcement.

Mehdi has also rejected speculation that he is part of any 'horse-trading' involving political leaders. He has maintained that his decision is a principled stand against the failure to fulfil key poll promises, particularly those concerning the restoration of Article 370, the release of certain prisoners and the protection of people's rights.

With the reported 14-day ultimatum hanging over the Omar Abdullah-led government and Ruhullah's November 3 resignation announcement adding to the pressure, the coming days could prove crucial for the National Conference and the survival of the administration.