- Relief from Trump's tariff war for Indian industries.
- Greater freedom for India on Russian oil purchases.
- More stable, institutional US-India relationship could emerge.
American voters are set to vent their frustrations and faith in US President Donald Trump’s nearly two years in office. However, if Trump and the Republican Party suffer a major defeat in the November 3 US midterm elections, it could create a significant strategic opportunity for India. Although Trump would remain president until January 2029, losing control of Congress could substantially weaken his ability to implement his political and economic agenda.
Why could this be good news for India?
1. Relief from Trump's tariff war
This could be India's biggest immediate opportunity. Trump has used tariffs as a negotiating weapon against India, creating uncertainty for Indian exporters. If Democrats take control of the House or Senate, they could increase scrutiny of Trump's aggressive trade policies and push for greater restrictions on presidential tariff powers.
Indian industries, including textiles, pharmaceuticals, engineering goods and gems and jewellery, could benefit if trade tensions ease. However, existing tariffs would not automatically disappear.
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2. Greater freedom over Russian oil
India considers affordable energy essential to its economic security. Trump's pressure on India over Russian oil purchases has created diplomatic complications. A Democratic-controlled Congress could question the economic consequences of Trump's tariff threats and demand greater accountability in US foreign policy.
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This could give India more negotiating room to maintain its energy relationship with Russia. However, Democrats are not necessarily softer on Moscow, so pressure over Russian oil could continue.
3. A more stable relationship with America
Perhaps the biggest long-term benefit could be a shift away from personality-driven diplomacy. India's relationship with America should not depend entirely on the personal chemistry between Narendra Modi and Trump.
A politically weakened Trump could mean greater influence for Congress, the Pentagon, the State Department and American institutions. India already enjoys considerable bipartisan support in Washington, particularly regarding defence cooperation and the Indo-Pacific. A stronger institutional relationship would make US-India ties more predictable.
4. Opportunities for Indian professionals
Indian IT professionals, students and technology companies have faced uncertainty over US immigration policies, particularly H-1B visas. Democrats could challenge restrictive immigration measures and push for reforms benefiting skilled foreign workers.
This could create opportunities for Indian professionals, although Trump would retain considerable executive authority over immigration.
5. India's strategic position against China
This is particularly interesting. Regardless of who controls Congress, America has strong strategic reasons to cooperate with India to balance China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
India could use Washington's domestic political uncertainty to strengthen cooperation in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, defence manufacturing, critical minerals and technology.
India could also attract companies looking to diversify their supply chains away from China.
But there is a catch
A Democratic victory would not automatically benefit India. Democrats could increase pressure on India over human rights, democratic institutions and its relationship with Russia. They may also maintain tough policies towards China and expect India to cooperate more closely with Washington.
(With inputs from Reuters)