- By Deeksha Gour
- Tue, 27 May 2025 08:46 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
Weather Forecast: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in June, which should help keep maximum temperatures in check across many regions, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD announced on Tuesday that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is projected to be around 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. This indicates a strong likelihood of above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which lasts from June to September 2025.
Key Predictions for Various Regions:
Central India and South Peninsular India: Expected to receive above-normal rainfall (greater than 106 per cent of LPA).
Northwest India: Rainfall is anticipated to be normal, falling between 92 per cent and 108 per cent of LPA.
Northeast India: Forecasted to receive below-normal rainfall (less than 94 per cent of LPA).
Updated Long Range Forecast For the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during 2025
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) May 27, 2025
Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September, 2025) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA (Long Period Average) with a model error of ± 4%
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June Rainfall Is Likely To Exceed 108 per cent
During a press conference, M Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that rainfall in June is likely to exceed 108 per cent of the long-period average of 166.9 mm. He noted that while most of the country can expect normal to above-normal rainfall, some southern parts, as well as certain areas in the northwest and northeast, may experience below-normal rain.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra added that the anticipated rainfall should result in normal to below-normal maximum temperatures across most regions, except for some areas in Northwest and Northeast India. Minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts, apart from some regions in Central India and the southern peninsula, where cloudiness may lead to lower temperatures.
Monthly Rainfall Summary:
June 2025: Expected rainfall likely to be above normal (>108 per cent of LPA).
June to September 2025: Anticipated to receive 106 per cent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm.
State-Wise Rainfall Forecast
The monsoon core zone, which includes crucial agricultural areas in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall this season. However, some areas may still face below-normal rainfall, particularly in Ladakh, parts of Himachal Pradesh and several northeastern states, along with regions in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha.
The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest arrival since 2009. This year, it arrived in Mumbai 16 days earlier than usual, the earliest since 1950. Typically, the monsoon begins in Kerala by June 1, reaches Mumbai by June 11 and covers the entire country by July 8.
Meteorologists stated that the onset date of the monsoon does not directly correlate with the total seasonal rainfall. Variability is common, influenced by global and regional factors.
The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture-dependent economy, providing essential water for crops, replenishing reservoirs and supporting drinking water and hydropower generation. Agriculture plays a vital role in the livelihoods of about 42 per cent of the population and contributes significantly to the country's GDP.
