• Source:JND
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Meteorologists are raising concerns that La Niña, a climate phenomenon known for disrupting weather patterns globally, may make a comeback later this year. This could lead to a colder-than-usual winter season across India, prompting authorities and residents to prepare for an unusually chilly season.

What is La Niña And How Does It Affect India?

La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, occurs when the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drops below average. Its effects are felt globally, causing shifts in rainfall patterns across America and bringing cold waves in Asia.

In India, the La Niña typically brings colder winters marked by increased frost, more intense cold spells, and heavier snowfall in northern regions, Economic Times reported.

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Climate Experts Predict Chances Of La Niña Rise

The US Climate Prediction Centre, on September 11, issued a La Niña watch, saying there is a 71 per cent chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025. The probability of La Niña forming between December 2025 and February 2026 is 54 per cent, but the alert remains in place.

IMD Predicts Possible La Niña After Monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also indicated the possible arrival of La Niña in India after the monsoon season. According to the forecast, currently, conditions remain neutral, with neither El Niño nor La Niña active. However, IMD’s forecast models suggest that La Niña may develop after the monsoon season.

“Our models show a good probability of La Niña developing during Oct–Dec this year (over 50%). La Niña is usually associated with colder winters in India. While climate change can balance this out to some extent, winters during La Niña years tend to be colder,” Economic Times quoted a senior IMD official as saying.

Private Forecaster Sees Chance Of Short La Niña

GP Sharma, president of private forecaster Skymet Weather, said that a short-lived La Niña cannot be ruled out either. He noted that the Pacific Ocean is already cooler than usual. However, it has not reached the official La Niña threshold.

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“If sea surface temperatures fall below -0.5°C anomalies and stay that way for at least three overlapping quarters, we officially declare La Niña. We saw something similar in late 2024 when La Niña briefly appeared between November and January before turning neutral again,” Sharma said.