Bengal Assembly Elections 202: The elections to the 294-member West Bengal Assembly, scheduled to be held in two phases - on April 23 and 29, is witnessing a tight fight between the two prime rivals - the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Left and Congress are also in the contest. The election is interesting as the BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, is set to make a third attempt to win West Bengal, one of the only states the saffron party could not win even if it had unprecedented electoral supremacy across the nation. On the other hand, TMC, riding on Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's popularity in the state, is seeking a record fourth term.
The geography of the state makes it politically complex. The state is divided into several regions, and every part of the state has a unique political landscape.
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In a state where dozens of seats were decided by margins of 2,000-5,000 votes in 2021, even marginal shifts in rolls carry weight. The sharpest churn is visible in districts bordering Bangladesh, where citizenship and migration politics have framed the contest between the TMC and the BJP. In Nadia, 2.73 lakh names were deleted, reducing the electorate from 44.18 lakh to 41.45 lakh. North 24 Parganas saw its voter base shrink by nearly 10 lakh, from roughly 83 lakh to 73.88 lakh, with around six lakh names under adjudication. In Muslim-majority Malda, the electorate fell from 32 lakh to 29.88 lakh, with nearly nine lakh names under adjudication. Murshidabad recorded 2.93 lakh deletions from a base of 57.64 lakh voters, while 11 lakh names remain under scrutiny. South 24 Parganas, the state's largest district electorally, saw deletions of over 8 lakh, with around five lakh names pending adjudication. Together, these districts influence more than 125 seats in the 294-member assembly.
Here's Region-Wise Political Analysis:
Muslim Populated Region(Border-Minority Belt): Muslim belts such as Murshidabad, Malda and the two 24 Parganas traditionally support the TMC. Infiltration and devastation caused by river erosion have been the biggest issues in Malda, referred to as the 'gateway to North Bengal'. Recently, addressing the mega rally in the Muslim-majority district of North Bengal, PM Modi said infiltration posed "a very big challenge" and alleged that TMC has an alliance with infiltrators, remarks that clearly indicated that illegal migration will be the central election issue of the BJP campaign in the state.
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The BJP raised issues related to the Matuas, a Dalit Hindu refugee community that migrated from Bangladesh over decades following religious persecution. With a decisive presence across 40-50 Assembly seats in North 24 Parganas, Nadia, and parts of South 24 Parganas. Former TMC leader and the founder of Aam Janata Unnayan Party, Humayun Kabir, who sparked the Babri Masjid row in the state, is set to dent TMC's Muslim vote bank. AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi is also there to eat into Mamata's minority vote share.
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North Bengal: The Northern part of Bengal - Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Kalimpong, Malda, Dakshin Dinajpur (South Dinajpur), and Uttar Dinajpur (North Dinajpur), witnessed a tight fight between the BJP and TMC. In the 2021 elections, out of 54 North Bengal seats, TMC won 28, while BJP won 25. A mini-secretariat in Siliguri helped Mamata in drawing the favour of the people in the region. On the other hand, the saffron party also increased its footprint in the region, banking on Hindutva and corruption-related issues.
Junglemahal Region: The region covers Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and West Midnapore, which used to be a Leftist stronghold, now shifted to the TMC. Mamata's welfare scheme large number of voters to the TMC fold. The BJP is playing on the tribal narrative to boost its electoral prospects.
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South Bengal (Rural Belt): This part of the state, spread across Hooghly, Howrah, East-West Midnapore, and Nadia, traditionally favours TMC. Several districts in the region account for 178 of the 294 seats. BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari's popularity worked in favour of the party in the region. Suvendu defeated Mamata in Nandigram in the 2021 polls. BJP is attempting to polarise the poll in the region.
Kolkata And Urban Belt: The region - Kolkata, Salt Lake, and Urban Howrah - supports the ruling party due to welfare and women-oriented schemes. The educated middle class and minorities stand for Mamata post the Left decline. However, the BJP is gaining ground slowly.
(With Agencies inputs)
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