The schedule for the assembly elections in five states has been announced, and the results could determine the course and direction of national politics in the coming years.
Victories for the BJP in Assam and West Bengal and the NDA in Tamil Nadu will further strengthen the Modi government's position at the centre, while victories for opposition parties in these states will boost the opposition's morale.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu
The biggest challenge for the BJP is the South fortress, which it has failed to penetrate for a long time. In Kerala, the saffron party is looking for a dramatic reversal, eying not only to open its account but also to oust the long-incumbent LDF.
There is also an anti-incumbency wave against the LDF for two consecutive terms, and this was also evident in last December's local elections, in which the Congress-led UDF achieved significant success.
If LDF loses, India will be left with no state ruled by a left-wing government.
On the other hand, in Tamil Nadu, the BJP has rectified the mistake of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by bringing the AIADMK into the NDA. In Tamil Nadu, where the DMK and AIADMK have alternately formed coalition governments, actor Vijay could upset the old equations. Puducherry will likely mirror the results of neighbouring Tamil Nadu.
What's BJP's Bengal battle plan?
BJP is also desperately looking to win Bengal, where the CM Mamata Banerjee-led TMC government has been in power for the last 15 years. In Bengal, a bipolar contest between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP is expected.
The BJP, which has leapt from three seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021, is aiming to put a stop to Mamata Banerjee's third consecutive victory, followed by a fourth. While the gap between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP's 77 seats in 2021 is quite large, the BJP isn't far behind in terms of vote share, with 39 per cent of the vote compared to the Trinamool Congress's 47 per cent.
Despite fighting together in 2021, both Congress and the CPM were reduced to about four and a half per cent. This time, both are contesting separately. Maulvi Abbas Siddiqui, the Imam of Furfura Sharif, who was part of the Congress-CPM alliance last time, failed to make a dent in Trinamool's Muslim vote bank. However, this time, a new factor of Humayun Kabir is set to impact the voting pattern in several constituencies.
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BJP vs Congress in Assam
Once a Congress stronghold, Assam has suffered defeats in the last two elections. The Congress has placed its faith in senior leader Gaurav Gogoi and decided not to repeat the mistake of allying with Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, as it did in 2021.
However, the delimitation of seats has significantly altered the electoral dynamics. The Muslim influence, which once influenced over three dozen seats, has now dwindled to less than two dozen.
The BJP is confident of winning Assam as there is no anti-incumbency despite 10 years of rule.