In a completely unexpected turn of events in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the TVK has emerged victorious, bringing to an end the nearly six-decade-long dominance of the two major Dravidian parties-- DMK and AIADMK.
Despite its historic debut victory, the Vijay-led party has fallen short of the majority mark, securing 108 seats in the 234-member House which is 10 fewer than the 118 needed to form the government independently. The outcome has now set the stage for intense political negotiations and speculation over the next move.
What’s next for TVK?
While TVK has claimed the top spot, the road to forming the government is not that simple.
Vijay, who contested from Perambur (Chennai) and Tiruchirappalli East, has won both seats. As per Election Commission rules, he must vacate one. Party sources suggest he is likely to give up the Tiruchirappalli seat.
If that happens, TVK’s total tally of seats will decrease by one. Then it will be 107. Adding to the number games, TVK appointed Speaker of the Assembly will be ineligible to cast a vote during a confidence motion and the party's effective voting strength will be reduced by yet another seat, which comes to 106.
Looking at the numbers, parties within the DMK alliance include Congress with five seats, the two Communist parties with two seats each (total four), DMDK with one, IUML with two, and VCK with two seats.
Within the AIADMK alliance, PMK has secured four seats, BJP one, and AMMK one.
If TVK manages to secure support from parties across both alliances, it could potentially add 21 seats to its tally, taking the number to 129 (108 + 21). However, the TVK does not require the support of all those parties, and the backing of just 12 members would suffice.
Governor’s call
Vijay is expected to meet Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar at Lok Bhavan on May 6 to stake claim. The Governor may offer two options, either ask him to prove his majority on the floor of the House or submit letters of support from allied parties.
If TVK demonstrates support beyond 118 MLAs, it will be invited to form the government. If it fails to gather enough backing, the opportunity may pass to the DMK, the second-largest party.
What if no one succeeds?
If neither TVK nor DMK manages to form the government, Tamil Nadu could come under Governor’s Rule for six months, followed by fresh elections.
What do experts say?
Senior political analyst Sumanth Raman told PTI that the TVK is likely to opt to be a minority government with outside support.
"Since it is the single largest party, TVK has the option to go for that". I don't think he (Vijay) will opt for official support from other political party's MLAs", he said.
"If he opts for minority government, the only thing is that, Vijay will have to prove the support once again after six months".
Raman also pointed out that in 2006 when DMK won only 92 seats, the then party president, the late M Karunanidhi formed a minority government with outside support.
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However, another political analyst Durai Karuna ruled out that TVK will go for a minority government.
"If he (Vijay) gives an appeal, many political parties including Congress, VCK and left parties will join TVK", he claimed. "In addition, the AIADMK, which has decided to organise MLAs meeting on Wednesday, might also announce that it would support TVK unconditionally".
He said a clear picture on Vijay's decision will emerge in a couple of days.
Tharasu Shyam, political critic, claimed that Congress was "holding talks with Vijay."
"From now on, the DMK must change its approach and this applies equally to the AIADMK," he said in an apparent reference to some reported difference of opinion between allies DMK and Congress over seat-sharing and power-sharing ahead of the April 23 polls.
Incidentally, AICC in-charge for Tamil Nadu, Girish Chodankar, on Tuesday admitted that the Congress party leadership's decision to stick with the DMK alliance went against strong grassroots sentiment favouring the TVK.
"The local leaders, the grassroots level leaders, were suggesting if Rahul Gandhi, who has a large acceptance in Tamil Nadu, joins the campaign with Vijay, it will create a big impact and we can sweep the Tamil Nadu polls, and get somewhere around 180-190 seats," Chodankar told PTI.
TVK approached Congress: KC Venugopal
KC Venugopal on Tuesday said discussions were held on the post-election political situation in Tamil Nadu, with senior leaders of the Indian National Congress in attendance. He said Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, and party in-charge Girish Chodankar were part of the discussions.
According to Venugopal, TVK president Vijay has sought the Congress party’s support to form the government in the state.