The delayed arrival of the monsoon in Uttarakhand is being attributed to a combination of factors, including the return of El Nino conditions and the unusual activity of western disturbances. Experts say these weather patterns have disrupted the atmospheric conditions required for the monsoon to strengthen and advance normally.
Climate change is another key reason highlighted by scientists, saying this phenomenon is slowly changing established monsoon patterns and pulling down rainfall over western India.
Dr Narendra Singh, Senior Environmental Scientist at the Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES), said El Nino has become active and could intensify further in the coming weeks.
"The strongest impact of El Nino is expected during July and August. Whenever El Nino becomes active, it affects the monsoon system. This is one of the key reasons why the monsoon's progress has slowed," he said.
According to Dr Singh, El Nino could not only reduce rainfall in some regions but also delay the monsoon's arrival and intensification. While its full impact will become clearer over the next few months, he believes the prolonged activity of western disturbances has also played a major role.
The normal window for a western disturbance is from December to February. However, western disturbances remained active until March and April this year, which meteorologists said may have resulted in the altered monsoon cycle.
Meteorologists explain that for the monsoon to become fully active, temperatures must rise steadily and reach peak summer levels. This year, repeated rainfall caused by western disturbances during March and April kept temperatures lower than normal, preventing the build-up of heat needed to strengthen monsoon currents.
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As a result, the monsoon has remained weak and sluggish. With El Nino expected to strengthen further, weather experts say its progress could continue to face challenges.
Despite the delay, Dr Singh said the monsoon is likely to enter Uttarakhand, including Nainital, by the first week of July. In the meantime, pre-monsoon showers are expected to continue across the state's mountainous regions.