Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in the joint US-Israel strikes has posed a key question for the Islamic Republic — will there be a regime change? With Khamenei gone, Iran stares at a massive leadership void as the Supreme Leader had not named his successor. The future of the Islamic regime becomes a matter of grave concern as the rule has been witnessing uprisings and dissent both within the country and from outside.
US President had already made a call to the Iranian people to hit the streets and take over the government, calling it "most probably the last opportunity.'
Iran moves towards continuity in governance
Iran is currently at a crossroads, with the first challenge of maintaining the stability and continuity in governance. Speculations of regime change or military takeover are rife, but experts believe the end of the Islamic Republic is not near, and hence, military takeover is not an option for now.
Ali Larijani, a close confidant of Khamenei, was expected to be the first choice in such a scenario. However, Larijani, an ex-IRGC official and Speaker of the Parliament, himself announced that there would be continuity of governance.
Down that road, Iran has already formed an interim council to lead the country during the transition phase as missiles continue to fly in the Middle East.
The council has three members, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a cleric of the Guardian Council.
Arafi is the interim leader until the Guardian Council of 88 members decides on the successor of Khamenei.
Why is regime change unlikely?
Regarding regime change, on-ground uproar is key to such a dramatic development, which would require exceptional logistical support to fight the IRGC and the Basij, a paramilitary force. Although social media is filled with visuals of people cheering in Tehran, the state broadcaster has shown visuals of thousands mourning.
Deeply ingrained religious loyalty of a large section towards the Islamic Republic, their deep-rooted ideological foundation, and strategically strong, ideologically disciplined and ruthless military are the biggest challenges for any adventure of regime change, at least for now.
The Islamic regime of Iran, under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, took crucial lessons from the country's history of political turmoil early on and put in place robust institutions meant to deal with a leadership crisis. The Khomeini regime formed the Guardian Council which would ensure that there was no deviation from the Islamic principles. It further instated the Assembly of Experts, which would select and supervise the supreme leader and prevent a concentration of power in one hand.
Iran's Expediency Council is meant to resolve major disagreements and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with the intelligence agencies, safeguard the revolution against both internal and external threats. The Khomeini regime ensured that these systems would together form a safety net in times of crisis.
Further, Article 111 of the Constitution lays down how the transfer of decision-making powers takes place in case of a leadership crisis. If a leader dies or becomes incapable to rule, an interim council takes over. This council includes the president, the head of the judiciary, and a senior cleric appointed by the Expediency Council.
What's next for Middle East?
The Middle East is currently seeing the widest open theatre of conflict in decades, with cities like Dubai and Doha burning with Iranian missile hits.
As Iran lost its Supreme Leader and vowed to harden its assault, tensions are likely to remain high in the region. The entire Gulf is watching towards uncertainty at the moment.
A long-fought war may not favour Iran, but it could dent Israel, the US and the interests of other countries dearly.
What consequences could the world face?
The regional instability in the Gulf directly affects the energy security of the world. Many countries across the world are dependent on Gulf crude and gas, and protracted tensions could disrupt the supply.
In Iran's case, the situation may worsen further as the IRGC has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, a 33-km wide chokepoint which transits 20 per cent of global oil.
Reuters, citing EU naval mission officials, stated that the IRGC on Saturday sent VHF transmissions to vessels, saying 'no ship is allowed to pass the Strait".
This may carry additional implications for the world as the US, which amassed naval forces and aircraft carriers near Iranian waters, could have to engage in removing the blockade, keeping it entangled in a conflict that could brew for a long time.