The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won a landslide victory in their favour as they won over 200 seats out of the 300 seats of the Bangladeshi Parliament (Jatiya Sansad). The party led by Tarique Rahman is set to come to power in the first Parliamentary elections in the country since the former Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina was ousted from her country in 2024. 

The main opposition party to the BNP in this election was Jamaat-e-Islami (also known as Jamaat), which secured over 65 seats. The main area of influence of Jamaat is the region neighbouring India’s West Bengal, where they received an overwhelming support. According to an analysis by News18, the growing political resurgence of Jamaat, especially in the border areas of West Bengal, can lead to an escalation of threat where a toxic cocktail of ideology, recruitment and logistics is brewing slowly before any kinetic action takes place. 

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Bangladesh Elections: Areas Under Jamaat’s Influence

As the election results in Dhaka are slowly settling in, it is clear that the areas under the influence of Jamaat are largely the Satkhira, Kushtia, parts of the Khulna belt of West Bengal, facing the border and the Rangpur region. Together, these three regions form a political arc for the Jamaat opposite to the states of West Bengal, Assam and the Siliguri corridor (the chicken’s neck).

Key Border Districts and Strongholds

Southwest (West Bengal Border):

  • Satkhira: Swept all four seats (Satkhira-1, 2, 3, and 4).

  • Kushtia: Won three out of four seats.

  • Khulna: Gained influence in parts of the Khulna belt facing West Bengal.

Northern Region (West Bengal & Assam Border):

  • Rangpur: Established itself as a dominant force, winning five out of six seats (Rangpur-1, 2, 3, 5, and 6).

  • Naogaon & Joypurhat: Won Naogaon-2 and Joypurhat-1, both of which share proximity to the Indian border belt.

  • Gaibandha: Secured Gaibandha-1, which interfaces with the wider India-facing security grid.

Northern Belt (Meghalaya Border):

  • Sherpur: Won Sherpur-1, located along the northern frontier adjacent to Meghalaya.

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What It Means For India?

According to the analysis, the growing influence of Jamaat in the border areas will create pressure for the Hindu minority in these areas. The analysis states that the Hindu minority can feel threatened due to the trap of land disputes, intimidation and a silent displacement.

This, in turn, can lead to waves of migration in India, which will affect the bordering state of West Bengal, mainly leading to further polarisation in the state of West Bengal. Besides attacks on Hindus, there are security concerns, given that the supporters in the neighbouring regions were often arrested for serious crimes.

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Meanwhile, the Indian intelligence system has said that the rise of Jamaat in the border areas of India does not threaten the country directly, but it can have a large-scale implication on the country. “The danger is less about bombs, more about radicalisation through Friday sermons, madrassa curricula, WhatsApp preachers and cross-border marriages. These are harder to detect, fewer in number but of higher impact," the Indian intelligence agency said, quoted News 18.