India-Bangladesh Ties: The results of Bangladesh's general elections have completely transformed the political landscape, which may have implications on the New Delhi-Dhaka ties. The election, the first in the country since the July-August 2024 violence, marked the end of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's long rule, forcing her to flee.
Now, Tarique Rahman's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has registered a landslide victory. This victory has made his critics believe that the story of the "Dark Prince" took a fairy tale turn as he is set to be coronated.
Party Seats
- BNP- 209
- Jamaat (Jamaat-e-Islami)- 68
- NCP- 6
- Independent- 7
- Khelafat Majlis 2
- Islami Andolan- 1
- Jatiya Party- 1
- Gono Odhikar Parishad- 1
- Ganosamhati Andolon- 1
Tarique Rahman's Return Story
60-year-old Tarique has become a symbol of political royalty. He is the son of former Bangladesh President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. Tarique left the country in 2017 after being arrested on corruption and money laundering charges. After 17 years in exile, he returned to his country in December 2025 after the death of his mother. He was welcomed with enthusiasm by huge crowd of BNP supporters.
'I've A Plane': Tarique
Recalling American civil rights activist Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech, he said, "...I have a plan for Bangladesh," and launched the BNP's election campaign. Now, India, South Asia, and the United States are waiting for this plan to be revealed.
India's First Reaction: Stress On Three Words
After news of Tarique's victory broke on Friday morning, India welcomed Bangladesh's new leader before China or Pakistan. Experts believe this move could prove crucial in any tussle with Pakistan over Bangladesh. Prime Minister Narendra Modi warmly congratulated Tarique and the BNP on their victory. He assured Tarique's government of India's support for a "democratic, progressive, and inclusive Bangladesh."
The message was clear: India wants to build stable relations with Bangladesh, forgetting the instability of the past 18 months, which included flirtations with China and Pakistan and attacks on Hindu minorities.
What Is India Concerned About?
India has closely monitored this election, as the new government's leanings could impact South Asian geopolitics.
There Are Three Key Issues For India:
The possibility of a Pakistan-China-Bangladesh alliance, which may get favorable atmosphere than Hasina's rule. If it happens, it could weaken India's regional influence.
Second, border and internal security issues, including illegal migration (impacting domestic politics ahead of the Bengal and Assam elections) and anti-Hindu sentiment.
Third, trade, where India has a USD 10 billion surplus and supplies over 80% of raw cotton to Bangladesh's garment industry.
Change In The 'Bangladesh First' Policy
Under Sheikh Hasina's rule, India and Bangladesh had stable relations, focused on trade, transport, border security, and water sharing. Although India would have preferred Hasina, it is now accepting the change of power. Tarique has promised to respect India's interests, signalling a shift from his mother's "Bangladesh First" policy. The BNP's clear majority victory ended the alliance with the radical Jamaat-e-Islami, a relief for India.
How Much Impact Will The Pakistan-China Connection Have?
In the absence of Jamaat, the BNP government may harbour less hostility towards India, but history points to a transactional relationship; Bangladesh may negotiate a JF-17 fighter jet deal with Pakistan. China's projects like the Mongla Port are feared to be used militarily.
Illegal border infiltration (1,000+ cases after July 2024) and drug trafficking will be issues in the Assam-Bengal elections. The 2,000+ attacks and 23 murders on the Hindu community are concerns for India. However, Tarique has promised security, but the BNP's conservative affiliation is a matter of concern.
(With Jagran.com inputs)