A leading US think tank has warned that the risk of an armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026 cannot be ruled out, citing unresolved tensions, continued militant activity, and accelerating military modernisation on both sides. The assessment comes just months after the two nuclear-armed neighbours were involved in a brief but intense four-day military confrontation in May.
The flare-up followed India’s launch of Operation Sindoor, which targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir after a Pakistan-sponsored terror attack killed 22 civilians in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam. The confrontation saw drone and missile strikes, followed by counter-attacks, before Pakistan called for a ceasefire.
According to intelligence assessments cited in the report, although no major terror attack has occurred in Jammu and Kashmir since May, more than 30 Pakistani terrorists were believed to be active in the Jammu region during the winter months. The report also pointed to continued provocative rhetoric from sections of Pakistan’s leadership, keeping tensions alive despite the ceasefire.
Defence Build-Up Despite Calm
The think tank noted that both countries have continued to strengthen their military capabilities. India’s Defence Acquisition Council recently approved procurement proposals worth around Rs 79,000 crore, including drones, air-to-air missiles, and precision-guided bombs. These acquisitions are aimed at enhancing India’s surveillance, strike, and deterrence capabilities.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has reportedly begun discussions with Turkey and China to procure drones and air defence systems. The move is seen as an attempt to address vulnerabilities exposed during Operation Sindoor, particularly in countering Indian aerial platforms.
US Assessment Of Conflict Risk
The warning comes from the Centre for Preventive Action (CPA) of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which evaluates global conflict risks that could affect US interests. The CPA described a “moderate likelihood” of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026, with a “moderate impact” on the United States. It attributed the risk to heightened terrorist activity and security measures in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The report also noted that the second Trump administration has sought to wind down several ongoing global conflicts, including tensions between India and Pakistan, alongside crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and parts of Africa.
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