Nepal Flash Floods: The recent flash floods in Nepal, killing over 270 have once again highlighted the dangers posed by earthquakes and other natural disasters in the Himalayan region. The disaster has also brought fresh attention to China’s massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, close to the Indian border.

Experts Flag Risks Of China's Dam Project

Several geologists and experts have expressed concern that as the dam lies in a highly earthquake-prone, it increases the risk of India being impacted if any calamity occurs. According to experts, a strong earthquake can trigger landslides and damage infrastructure such as dams, roads and bridges. This implies that a major incident in the region is likely to have consequences far beyond Tibet because the river flows downstream into India.

Flagging the risks, strategic expert Brahma Chellaney wrote on X, “The Himalayas are the world's most seismically active major mountain range, with a record of triggering devastating earthquakes.” He added, “How even a moderate seismic event can trigger massive cascading effects was illustrated today when a magnitude 4.4 quake along the Tibet-Nepal border unleashed a disaster, with flash floods washing away Nepali villages.”

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Calling China’s project, a “water bomb in the making”, Chellaney expressed concern that any natural disaster in the region can severely impact India’s northeast states and Bangladesh. “This will renew global attention on China's folly in persisting with the construction of the world's largest dam in the middle of the Himalayan seismic zone. The project, located next to the Indo-Tibetan border, is a water bomb in the making, which could drown India's northeast and wreak havoc farther downstream in Bangladesh,” Chellaney said.

'Monster Dam Can Bring Devastation'

Former Indian ambassador and foreign affairs commentator Rajiv Dogra also warned of the risk of a "much bigger devastation" due to China’s dam. He wrote on X, “A much bigger devastation could strike India's North-East if China goes to complete its 60,000 MW monster dam on Brahmaputra in seismologically sensitive zone.”

Chinese Study Raises Earthquake Concerns

Earlier, a research paper published in the Chinese government-backed journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology also raised questions about the safety of the project. According to the study, the proposed hydropower project is located near the Paizhen Fault, an active tectonic fault zone in southeastern Tibet. Researchers from Chengdu University of Technology and the China Geological Survey found that the fault has remained “highly active since the Pleistocene” and continues to experience tectonic movement.

Why Is This Concerning For India?

India has repeatedly raised concerns over China’s activities on the Brahmaputra. The main concerns include possible changes in water flow, damage to ecosystems, and risks to communities living downstream if an earthquake, landslide or technical failure affects the dam. Notably, after entering India, the Yarlung Tsangpo becomes the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh and later the Brahmaputra in Assam.

Arunachal CM Called It A ‘Ticking Water Bomb’

Earlier in 2025, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu had warned about China’s mega dam project near the state border. He described it as a “ticking water bomb” that could pose an existential threat to people living downstream. “Setting aside the military threat from China, it seems to me that this is a far bigger issue than anything else. It is going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of 'water bomb'," he said.

What’s The Status Of China Dam?

According to reports, China has started the construction of the Medog or Motuo Hydropower Station, which is expected to be bigger than the Three Gorges Dam. The project is estimated to cost nearly 1.2 trillion yuan and generate roughly 300 billion hours of electricity each year. The Chinese government had authorised its construction in 2024, and the work began on 19 July 2025. The dam will feature five cascade hydropower stations, and the first power is expected to be generated by the 2030s.

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