El Nino Update: A prominent climate phenomenon, El Nino is drawing significant attention as unusual weather events are reported across the world. From heavy rainfall in Chile that turned parts of the Atacama Desert into a carpet of flowers to downpour in Japan’s Tokyo, its effects are being closely watched. Amid these weather events, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that El Nino is likely to strengthen further towards the end of 2026.

Unusual Weather Events

According to reports, Chile’s Atacama Desert witnessed an unusual sight in September as millions of seeds and bulbs from around 200 flower species bloomed after heavy rainfall. This was considered strange as Atacama is known as one of the driest places on Earth. Similarly, Tokyo experienced a wet September as the city received nearly three times its normal rainfall, as reported by Japanese media outlets. The city also recorded very little sunshine, with the sun remaining absent for 14 days during the month. These contrasting weather events highlight how climate phenomenon works differently in different parts of the world.

WMO's October Outlook

In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update for October-November-December (OND) 2026, the WMO said climate forecasts point towards a further strengthening of El Nino. The warming is expected to peak around December.

“For the October-November-December 2026 (OND 2026) season, multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate a further intensification toward stronger El Niño conditions. The seasonal average Nino 3.4 SST anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C during OND 2026, with the warming trend peaking around December 2026. The spread among individual forecast systems generally remains narrow, reflecting high forecast confidence,” the WMO noted.

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Earlier, in its September bulletin, the WMO had warned that El Nino was firmly established and likely to strengthen into a very strong event in the coming months. It indicated an exceptionally high, nearly 100 per cent likelihood that the event would persist through February 2027. It also warned of risks of extreme heat, floods, and drought due to El Nino.

What's In Store For India?

For India, a stronger El Nino raises concerns about winter temperatures, rainfall patterns and the October-December northeast monsoon season. However, the strong El Nino does not automatically mean drought or below-normal rainfall everywhere as its effects vary across regions. El Nino is usually linked to weaker summer monsoon rainfall in India.

However, its influence on the northeast monsoon, which brings rainfall to Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and parts of Karnataka during October-December can be different. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has noted that El Nino generally favours normal to above-normal northeast monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India.

Earlier, while responding to a question on El Nino’s impact on monsoon, the Ministry of Earth Sciences stated that its actual impact will depend on wider ocean and atmospheric conditions. “El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category. However, its exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor. IMD continuously monitors the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues regular seasonal and monthly forecasts and advisories,” the statement noted.

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