With a shaky ceasefire in place between the US, Israel and Iran, and little progress on talks to resolve the complex issues at the heart of the war, where is this conflict going? The most likely scenario is a frozen conflict.
A frozen conflict is not static, but is an unresolved war that continues at a low level below the threshold of full-scale combat. This typically occurs when a comprehensive political agreement cannot be reached, such as the fighting in eastern Ukraine from 2014 until Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. This conflict was considered frozen despite the deaths of some 14,000 military personnel and civilians and persistent cyber and information warfare.
Even if negotiations resume this week in Pakistan and an eventual agreement is reached, there are still three reasons we believe this is headed towards a frozen conflict, not a comprehensive peace agreement.
1. Trump equates ceasefires with an end to war
US President Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy has shown that he does not treat ceasefires as pauses for negotiations to agree on substantive political issues. Rather, he declares a ceasefire as a US success, then moves on to the next global issue.
Trump claims to have ended ten wars, including the current conflict with Iran and Israel’s war in Lebanon. A closer look reveals that in most of these conflicts, a shaky ceasefire has held while substantive issues remain unresolved.
ALSO READ: Islamabad Talks 2.0: Old Wounds Overshadow Negotiations; Why Iran Still Doesn't Trust US Diplomacy
This has left frozen conflicts in place with ongoing tensions. In India and Pakistan, which engaged in a brief armed conflict last year, for example, there is a continued risk of renewed hostilities. And a lasting peace between Thailand and Cambodia after last year’s border spats remains elusive. Yet, Trump has walked away from these conflicts and claimed an end to war as soon as a cessation of major hostilities was in place.
2. Asymmetric wars are difficult to resolve
The current war is asymmetric because of the huge difference in military strength between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Iran has intentionally used asymmetric tactics to counter the US’ overwhelming military power, including targeting infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries not involved in the war and closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping traffic to disrupt the global economy.
Research shows asymmetric wars are inherently protracted and often open-ended. As a result, they are more likely to end in a frozen conflict than an enduring political settlement. The reason for this is simple: the weaker actor cannot win a conventional military battle against the stronger actor. So, it tries to exhaust the more powerful nation with political, economic and psychological pressure, forcing a withdrawal and cessation of hostilities.
This is what we are seeing now between the US and Iran. Trump is feeling these rising pressures and is pursuing a ceasefire, while trying to claim a US victory. Iran, meanwhile, has agreed to a ceasefire in a bid for survival as the weaker actor, rather than a commitment to an enduring end to the conflict.
3. There’s been no focus on the more complex issues
Neither the US nor Iran appears committed to any long-term resolution of the underlying tensions at the root of the conflict. Key among these is the question of Iran’s nuclear program.
For Washington, the first round of peace talks in Pakistan on April 11–12 was aborted because Iran refused to compromise on its nuclear program. Iran has long argued it has an inalienable right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. Given the history of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—which took 20 months to conclude before Trump withdrew three years later—a quick resolution is unlikely.
Trump is now facing an opponent that is unlikely to become more accommodating regarding its “nuclear rights.” In fact, Iran has already shown its resolve by asserting a new geostrategic norm, closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the global economy.
What a frozen conflict means for the region
The Iran-US war may conclude with a series of ceasefires, but will likely remain a frozen conflict. This means more threats over Iran’s nuclear program and periodic flare-ups of violence between Israel and Iran, the US and Iran, or both.
This is much like the situation in Gaza. Last October, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire under Trump’s 20-point peace plan. While the first phase led to a hostage-prisoner exchange and a decrease in bombardment, there has since been no progress on complex questions like post-war governance or the disarmament of Hamas.
Historically, the frozen conflict in the Koreas is also instructive. The war ended with an armistice in 1953 and no peace treaty, leading to the North developing an underground nuclear weapons program. Similarly, a frozen conflict between the US, Israel and Iran will no doubt create long-term instability in the Middle East, including a possible arms race and periodic flare-ups, particularly around control of the Strait of Hormuz.
(Note: Except for the headline, this article has not been edited by The Daily Jagran and has been published through a syndicated feed. Source - PTI)