Bangladesh In Transition: Post-Hasina Era Sees Rise Of China-Pakistan Ties, Decline In India’s Influence

Last year, Bangladesh was ready to move towards a new era when its former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, was forced to step down from power in a massive student-led revolt. Her 15-year rule came to an end, and she was forced to flee to India. Even a year after the rebellion, the same restlessness and confusion that once threw the country into a period of turmoil and military conspiracies still linger on the streets of Bangladesh. The system of Bangladesh, which had written a new story of progress in the past few decades, has gone off track. The protests over the past year have brought back the same old image of Bangladesh to the world: a country that tries for democracy but repeatedly returns to the grip of instability.

This situation is particularly important for India. For decades, India has seen Bangladesh not just as a neighbour but as a strategic partner, whether it was the 1971 war or the recent era of cooperation. This relationship strengthened further under Sheikh Hasina's rule. But, as the picture of power changed, the political geography also got disrupted. China and Pakistan are also looking to take advantage of this opportunity and are making efforts. In such a scenario, Bangladesh becomes extremely important for India and the balance in South Asia.

The command of the interim government formed after the revolt was handed over to Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus. He had promised that transparent elections would be held in the country soon, that necessary reforms would be made to the constitution and the electoral system and that the violence spreading on the streets would be ended. In this violence, which started on July 15, 2024, hundreds of people were killed. But a year later, the Yunus government seems to be struggling to manage the crisis that arose after the revolt. The country is still beset by political instability, religious tension and serious law-and-order problems.

Michael Kugelman, an expert on South Asian affairs, says that the post-revolution honeymoon doesn't last long. There were high hopes from the Yunus government to restore democracy, but it is extremely difficult to do so without an elected mandate.

Dr Sankalp Gurjar, an Assistant Professor at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, says that if you look at the period between 2008 and 2024, the relations between India and Bangladesh were very cordial. Throughout this period, Sheikh Hasina was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and was considered a 'close friend' of India. This was not a sudden equation but rather, closeness with India has been in the roots of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and his party, the Awami League.

This is part of a long journey of relationships. In the way the protests and power shifts have occurred, India has been considered a close friend of Sheikh Hasina. But the new government's effort will be to create distance from India. This distance is for two reasons: one, due to political self-interest and second, the feeling that Bangladesh's policy is overly tilted towards India. There has also been a perception that India considers itself the 'big brother' and imposes its will on Bangladesh. How true this is can be a matter of debate, but the impact of this thinking is visible in their politics.

Sankalp says that since 2024, the new regime has started the process of reversing Sheikh Hasina's policies and decisions. The changes she had made to the constitution are now being altered. Hasina's secular policies have also been controversial, with many disagreeing with them. Her pro-India image also became a reason for criticism. That is why a new Bangladesh is now being envisioned, or in other words, an attempt is underway to forge a 'different Bangladesh'.

Professor (Dr) Sreeradha Datta of International Relations at O.P. Jindal University says that the assertion being made in various places that Bangladesh is tilting towards China is not factually correct. In fact, Bangladesh tried several times to meet and have a dialogue with India, but India did not give them time. In such a situation, they attended the international conference in which they have been participating for the past several years. There, they met with the leaders of other countries.

There has been no major change at the unit level in China-Bangladesh relations. The projects that were started with China during Sheikh Hasina's tenure were unprecedented. But to say now that Bangladesh has moved even closer to China is also factually incorrect. Most of the projects that were announced during Sheikh Hasina's time have not been implemented to this day.

Geetanjali Sinha Roy, an Assistant Professor at OP Jindal University, says that the circumstances that have developed in the relations between India and Bangladesh in recent years have reduced the warmth in the relationship. Bangladesh is India's closest and most important neighbour, which is extremely crucial for the country's stability and security.

Recently, at the BIMSTEC conference, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presented his views on several issues. Bangladesh is the current chair of the BIMSTEC conference. He emphasised the need to stop incidents of illegal border crossing, conveyed India's concern over the situation of Hindus in Bangladesh and stressed the necessity of a fair investigation into the atrocities being committed against Hindus. PM Modi made it clear that the Bangladesh government should seriously investigate these matters and give the highest priority to the safety and protection of the Hindu community living there.

In the context of visa policy, it has come to light that the medical visa process for health-related cases has been initiated, which will provide relief to seriously ill patients.

Bangladesh Tilting Towards China and Pakistan

During Sheikh Hasina's tenure, India was Bangladesh's closest ally. But after Hasina's departure, the Yunus government has moved closer to China. In March, Yunus's first foreign trip was to China, from where he secured investments, loans, and grants. India has not responded to Bangladesh's requests to send Hasina back. Additionally, since Hasina's departure, India has also stopped issuing visas to Bangladeshis. The Yunus government is receiving support from Western countries and the United Nations. The future of democracy in Bangladesh appears uncertain.

Sankalp believes that India also understands these changes. In the changed political atmosphere, Bangladesh appears to be leaning towards China and Pakistan. The friendship of the last 16 years no longer exists because, for India, Sheikh Hasina was a strong pillar.

The situation is that political restrictions have been imposed on the Awami League. Cases are ongoing against Sheikh Hasina, and tribunals have been set up. The plan so far is to hold elections in 2026, but Hasina and her party are being prevented from participating. In a systematic way, they are being pushed out of the political space. The new regime believes that this can appease anti-Awami League factions. A 'new era' has begun.

However, the Awami League's popular base is still strong. People are not able to show open support due to fear, but if elections are held, the Awami League could again play a crucial role. Even if it doesn't get a majority, its participation in the parliament is considered certain.

Analyst Kugelman says that the biggest challenge for the country is the attitude of the Trump administration. In January 2025, the United States halted USAID assistance to Bangladesh, which was necessary for reconstruction after Hasina's departure. Now, Dhaka will have to redefine its relationship with the US, because the Trump administration views Bangladesh from a commercial standpoint.

Geetanjali says that it is clear that a change has occurred in Bangladesh's foreign policy, and it now appears to be moving closer to China. The atrocities being committed against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh are unacceptable. Furthermore, the ousting of the Sheikh Hasina government has created a major political vacuum, which has not only destabilised the neighbouring country but has also created a complex and sensitive situation in the entire region.

India will have to take strict steps

Dr Abhinav Pandya, founder and CEO of the Usanas Foundation, says: The tension seen in India-Bangladesh relations is a long-term development. Fundamentally, the elements that were active behind the removal of Sheikh Hasina from power were ISI-supported and had terrorist tendencies. And basically, the countries that are enemies of India, whether it be Pakistan or the interference of America, they (the elements) were acting on their behest.

They removed the government that had a positive stance towards India and adopted a cooperative and positive approach with India on the issue of terrorism.

Pandya says that the government that has now come to power is supporting radical Islamic and pro-Qatar forces. Awareness about this has also increased among the people. This sentiment is growing rapidly within Bangladesh's population. Contact among the people has increased.

Now, India has made a major change to its visa rules. Previously, India used to issue 1,000 visas per day; now, a heavy cut has been made to this. India is now specifically giving visas only to those coming for medical treatment and family reasons. For those who used to visit their relatives and family, this process has now been made quite limited. India will now issue visas only in cases where there is an emergency medical need.

This could be a positive step because the kind of meetings and activities currently underway in Bangladesh and the way people's prosperity is growing or is expected to grow, appear to go against India's civil and security interests. In such a scenario, India too will have to take such concrete steps for its civil and security interests.

Rising radical Islamic party strength a concern

Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamic party banned a decade ago by the Hasina government, has now returned to politics. It is working together with the new student-led party and wants to fill the vacuum left by the Awami League, which was banned in May. The strength of the Jamaat is not yet clear. This is the same party that had opposed independence from Pakistan in 1971.

Sankalp Gurjar says that the growing power of Jamaat-e-Islami is another concern. This party has been anti-India since 1971. Its attacks on Hindu minorities, democratic values, and a progressive image harm Bangladesh's global credibility. For India, this is a double crisis. On one hand, the new government's policy of distancing itself from India and on the other, the rise of the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami. Due to both these factors, China and Pakistan are once again gaining ground in Bangladesh. Sankalp says that this could also become a matter of concern for India's border states.

For now, it is clear that Bangladesh's political direction is uncertain. Whether elections will happen or not, if they do, when and whether they will be fair—all of this is under a cloud of doubt.

Uncertainty over elections

Yunus says that he wants to implement necessary reforms before the elections. This includes several important proposals related to the constitution, judiciary, police and parliament, such as setting a term limit for the Prime Minister, forming a bicameral parliament and changing the appointment system for the Chief Justice.

However, a political consensus on these reforms is not being reached. The BNP and Jamaat are ready to agree to some reforms with certain conditions, but differences persist on many proposals. Jamaat wants all reforms to be completed before the elections, whereas the BNP wants early elections. The student party is also largely following the Jamaat's line.

The BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami are now confronting each other over dominance in the administration, judiciary and university campuses. There is also a conflict over the date of the next election. Yunus has announced that the elections will be held in April 2026, but uncertainty persists due to poor law and order and a lack of political consensus. The country's military chief was in favour of holding elections in December 2025, but Yunus rejected this opinion.

Sankalp believes that the government has claimed that 'reforms' are being carried out before the election to eliminate the Awami League's influence over the state machinery. There is talk of constitutional amendments, new policies, and police reforms, but the question is whether these reforms will genuinely strengthen the democratic process or merely become a tool to postpone the transfer of power.

Dr Sankalp explains that if elections are indeed to be held before April, then serious preparations towards transparency and accountability must begin immediately. But this is an uncertain, unstable and rapidly changing situation, in which no forecast can be considered reliable at present.

Kugelman says that the purpose of the reforms was to unite the country, but this issue has now itself become a cause for division.

Geetanjali Sinha Roy says that in the year 2026, Bangladesh's political picture once again appears to be changing rapidly. Yunus, who now wants to remain in power, has suggested postponing the elections. Along with this, he has banned former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's party and many of the party's prominent leaders have been sent to jail. The role of the military leadership has been crucial in the discussions regarding the formation of the interim government in the country. In this period of political instability, the army has not only been seen setting power equations from the backdoor, but it has also emerged as the pivot of the transitional system.

This series of events is taking Bangladesh away from democracy and towards an uncertain and unstable political direction, which will not only impact regional stability but also raise questions about the warmth of India-Bangladesh relations.

Dr Pandya says that the possibility of free and fair elections happening in Bangladesh appears quite low. A major reason is the deep interference of international powers like China, Pakistan and the United States. These countries have a strong influence on Bangladesh. In such a situation, these powers would want governments to be formed there that serve their interests.

Secondly, the democratic tradition in Bangladesh was already weak, but it has weakened even further after Sheikh Hasina's departure from power. Now, the influence of Islamic fundamentalist elements has rapidly increased. Particularly, the activity of radical organisations like Jamaat-e-Islami and associated political parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party has intensified. In such circumstances, conducting free and fair elections becomes even more difficult.

Currently, there is suppression against Sheikh Hasina's party, the Awami League. At the same time, minorities such as Hindus, Christians and Buddhists are also being targeted.

Fair elections do not seem possible in such an atmosphere. Military pressure is also continuously increasing. Just as General Ershad once ruled Bangladesh for a long time, the army's role is once again becoming decisive. I think that international powers would also find a strong military-led regime more suitable than instability.

Professor (Dr) Sreeradha Datta says that as far as electoral reforms are concerned—such as setting a term limit for the Prime Minister, filling judicial vacancies, or splitting the parliamentary session into two parts—these are all preliminary suggestions for now. Some reforms are necessary, like strengthening the Election Commission. But it would be premature to say that these reforms will be effective. Consultations with all parties are currently underway.

The interim government's constituent parties have their own opinions – the BNP, Jamaat and other parties are not in agreement. If elections are held, the picture will change. If not, another political crisis could arise.

The BNP and Awami League have been the two main parties in Bangladesh. This time, the BNP is included in the election process, but the Awami League has been banned. The BNP wants the elections to be held soon, while Jamaat-e-Islami wants reforms to happen first.

The army wants the elections to be held by the end of this year, but looking at the situation, this seems difficult. The army's role will be crucial. If the law and order situation deteriorates, the army's intervention could increase. An early election is advantageous for the BNP because their hold is strong right now. The other parties do not have as much of a popular base.

Pakistan- Bangladesh Relations

Professor Datta says that most projects are only on paper. Nothing has changed on the ground. Regarding Pakistan, it is trying to bring Bangladesh closer to it, similar to its relationship with China. Pakistan has invited Bangladesh twice. Bangladesh has also responded to this, but Bangladesh has repeatedly made it clear that the obstacle in relations with Pakistan is the question of an apology. They do want good relations, but the initiative is coming from Pakistan's side. It's not that Bangladesh is going to Pakistan.

There is a historical relationship with Pakistan; both have been together for years. However, due to the Awami League's and Sheikh Hasina's personal differences, they had maintained a distance from Pakistan. Now, some change may come to that, but it has many limitations.

Professor (Dr) Sreeradha Datta says that our suspicion and concern is that Pakistan might carry out anti-India activities through Bangladesh. Such concerns existed before as well, when it was heard that some people were going to Pakistan for training. This is not a new thing. Now, it remains to be seen how Pakistan uses Bangladesh, or whether Bangladesh allows itself to be used against India.

BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami in electoral face-off

Dr Sankalp says that on one hand, while the Awami League is boycotting the election, on the other, the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and Jamaat-e-Islami are uniting. The BNP believes that this is the most opportune time for them. They want the elections to be held as soon as possible, because a delay could diminish their prospects.

But the picture is not that straightforward. The student leadership also has to establish itself. Even social activists like Muhammad Yunus, who faced corruption allegations during the Hasina regime, have political ambitions. He attempted a political role in 2005-06 and was active in 2006-08 when Bangladesh had a military-backed government. He wants to remain in power for as long as possible. The current situation is favourable for him because he is not elected, and postponing the elections is in his interest to stay in power. In this entire equation, the army's role is the most crucial.

Role of the Army

Dr Sankalp believes that since 2008, the army has limited itself to the barracks. It had become clear to them that if they returned to a military dictatorship, Bangladesh would suffer internationally. But today, the situation has changed. Once again, several powers are active in political interference; Yunus, the army, the BNP, the student leadership—everyone is seeking their own influence.

The army is still an organised and influential power centre. The army was in power in Bangladesh between 1975 and 1991, and its political intervention occurred again between 2006-08. If the army feels that its influence is diminishing or that the situation could worsen, it too might distance itself from the elections or intervene.

Jamaat-e-Islami's rise is concerning for India; Pakistan's ISI influence will increase in Bangladesh

Dr Abhinav Pandya says that how Islamic fundamentalist organisations, especially Jamaat-e-Islami, are making a comeback in Bangladesh can radically transform not only its politics but the entire fabric of its society and culture.