Transboundary river tensions ran high this week after Pakistan threatened a retaliatory measure involving the Brahmaputra River, following India’s recent moves to suspend the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma reacted strongly to Pakistan's blatant claim that China may divert the flow of Brahmaputra into India, terming it a "baseless scare narrative" that is based on misinformation. Rana Ihsaan Afzal, a top aide to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who quoted as saying that if India can block Indus waters, then China also could be able to cut off Brahmaputra's flow to India, a veiled threat aimed at stirring anxieties over water security in India’s Northeast. The comment follows India's recent move to unilaterally suspend major provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 World Bank-brokered deal that granted privileged access to the Indus river system to Pakistan.

Brahmaputra Is a River That Grows in India, Not Shrinks: Assam CM

Reacting through X (formerly Twitter), CM Himanta Biswa Sarma made a detailed, fact-oriented counterargument to the statement, saying, “What if China stops Brahmaputra Water to India? A response to Pakistan’s new scare narrative… Let’s dismantle this myth – not with fear, but with facts and national clarity. Sarma emphasised that China supplies just 30–35 per cent of the total volume of the river, mainly through glacial melt and limited rainfall in Tibet. Comparatively. 65–70 per cent of the Brahmaputra's water comes from within India, fed by intense monsoons and a network of powerful tributaries. Assam Chief Minister provided hydrological information indicating that the flow of the Brahmaputra rises almost seven times within Indian borders. The river runs at 2,000–3,000 cubic metres per second in Indo-China near Tuting but bursts to 15,000–20,000 cubic metres per second upon reaching Guwahati during the monsoon, clearly driven by India’s geography and rainfall.“The Brahmaputra is not a river that India depends on for its upstream needs. It is a rain-fed Indian river system, strengthened after entering Indian territory,” Sarma wrote.

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Sarma also pointed out that, ironically, if China were ever to cut water supply, it might just blunt the annual Assam floods that ravage lakhs of people and destroy vast areas of agriculture. Though China has not officially stated this yet. Drawing parallels with the Indus dispute, Sarma said, “Pakistan, which has exploited 74 years of preferential water access under the Indus Waters Treaty, now panics as India rightfully reclaims its sovereign rights.”

International Perspective

Meanwhile, international water experts are raising alarms over China’s proposed “Great Bend Dam” on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the upper stream of the Brahmaputra in Tibet. Indian MP Tapir Gao described it as a potential “water bomb”, warning of serious implications for downstream countries. Dr. Ranbir Singh, Chairman of the Brahmaputra Board, questioned whether India’s only water-surplus river basin could soon become water-deficient.

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He called for India to adopt a multi-pronged strategy, including international diplomatic efforts to counter China’s hydropower expansion. The episode of India-Pakistan conflict also illustrates how water is increasingly turning into the next frontier of war in South Asia, with India, Pakistan, and China entangled in a complicated drama of hydrology, sovereignty, and strategic distrust.