Canada Elections Results Updates: PM Carney's Liberal Party Declares Victory; Conservative Leader Poilievre Concedes Defeat

"To my fellow Conservatives, we have much to celebrate tonight. We've gained well over 20 seats. We got the highest share of vote our party has received since 1988. We denied the NDP and Liberals enough seats to form a coalition government," he told supporters in Ottawa.

"That said, we are cognisant of the fact that we didn't quite get over the finish line yet. We know that change is needed but change is hard to come by, it takes time, it takes work, and that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight so that we can have an even better result the next time the Canadians decide the future for the country."

"Canadians have opted for a razor thin minority government, a virtual tie in the vote count. So I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government."

"We'll have plenty of opportunity to to debate and disagree. But tonight we come together as Canadians," he said, after the crowd booed his mention of Carney. "We will always put Canada first as we stare down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President Trump."

The Liberals need to win 172 of the House of Commons' seats for a majority that would allow them to govern without support from a smaller party.

CANADA ELECTIONS RESULTS UPDATES

Canada's ruling Liberals retained power in Monday's election but it is too soon to say whether they will form a majority government, CTV News and CBC predicted. Carney had asked for a strong mandate to help him handle U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and annexation threat but CTV and CBC said the Liberals had not yet secured the 172 electoral districts, known as seats, they needed for a majority.

The result might not be known for some time and could depend on the westernmost province of British Columbia, where polls closed last. The Liberals were leading or elected in 133 electoral districts, which are also called seats, followed by the Conservatives with 93.

Carney had promised a tough approach with Washington over its tariffs and said Canada would need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the United States. But the right-of-center Conservatives, who called for change after more than nine years of Liberal rule, showed unexpected strength.

TRUMP'S ROLE IN CANADA ELECTIONS

But the election was also a referendum on someone who isn't even Canadian: Donald Trump. The US president trolled Canadians on election day by suggesting on social media that he was in fact on the ballot and repeating that Canada should become the 51st state, incorrectly claiming the US subsidises Canada. "It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!" Trump wrote.

Poilievre, who has been criticised for not taking a firmer stance against Trump, responded with a post of his own. "President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box," he posted. "Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state." Until Trump won a second term and began threatening Canada's economy and sovereignty, the Liberals looked headed for defeat. But Trump's truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel US vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early.

A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day. Trump's attacks also put Poilievre and the opposition Conservative Party on the defensive and led to a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative. "The Americans want to break us so they can own us," Carney said recently, laying out what he saw as the election's stakes. "Those aren't just words. That's what's at risk."

There are 343 seats in the elected House of Commons chamber. Here are the potential outcomes of the vote and what they would mean:

MAJORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT

This result would be the most straightforward. Carney would continue to govern without interruption.

MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT

Carney would continue to govern but have to either negotiate with opposition legislators for support or go it alone and dare other parties to topple his government.

If the Liberals fell a few seats short of the 172 needed for a majority, they would most likely govern as though they had one, confident that other parties would not want to oust them so soon after the election.

But if they ended up 20 or so seats short, they would need help. Their natural partner is the left-leaning New Democratic Party, which struck a deal with Justin Trudeau - Carney's predecessor - to keep him in power for more than two years in return for increased spending on social programs.

MAJORITY CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT

This result is the second-most straightforward scenario.

After a transition period that usually lasts about 10 days, Poilievre would visit the governor general with his cabinet to be sworn in.

STRONG MINORITY CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT

This outcome would be more complex, in part because the Conservatives have no natural allies in a House where the smaller opposition parties - the Bloc, the New Democrats and the Greens - are all left-leaning.

Key factors would be how many seats the Conservatives won and the reaction of Carney, who remains prime minister until a confidence vote in the House.

WEAK MINORITY CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT

If the Conservatives won more seats than the Liberals but fell far short of a majority, Carney could still step down and give Poilievre a chance to govern.

The risk for Poilievre is that the Liberals and other parties could unite to bring him down quickly. The defeat of a government would normally trigger an election, but if Poilievre were toppled quickly, the governor general would most likely invite Carney to try to form a government.

HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH SLIGHT EDGE TO THE CONSERVATIVES

This scenario is by far the most complicated and potentially destabilizing.

While the Conservatives traditionally argue the party with the most seats should get the first chance to govern, that privilege falls to the party that can show it has the House's confidence.

If Poilievre won a handful of seats more than the Liberals and Carney felt he could create a stable arrangement with the New Democrats, the prime minister could try to remain in office until there was a chance to test the confidence of the House.

(With inputs from agency)

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