China’s New ‘Condom Tax’ Goes Viral, Ignites Debate As Birth Rate Hits Record Low

China condom tax: In a sharp reversal of its long-standing family planning policy, China has decided to impose a 13 per cent value-added tax on condoms and other contraceptives with effect from January 2026, lifting an exemption that had been granted since 1993.

The move marks Beijing's latest attempt to counter the country's rapidly falling birth rate and growing demographic imbalance.

Policy Pivot After 30 Years

For over three decades, condoms, birth-control pills, and related products were kept tax-free as China enforced its one-child policy and promoted widespread contraception and sterilisation. The new VAT law removes that exemption entirely. Contraceptives will now be treated like any other consumer commodity, making prices rise across the country.

The move is part of a wider policy trend toward pro-natal rather than restrictive policies. But experts warn that the symbolic nature of the move may not yield the dramatic increase in fertility rates that Beijing hopes for. Demographer He Yafu told Bloomberg the removal of the exemption is "largely symbolic" but reflected the government's intention to reshape social attitudes and discourage abortions that are medically unnecessary.

Birth Rate Drops Alarmingly In Beijing

Demographic indicators are stark. China has witnessed three consecutive years of population decline, with only 9.54 million births in 2024, almost half the number reported in 2016 when the one-child rule was relaxed. According to UN forecasts, China’s population could decline to 800 million by 2100, significantly altering its economic trajectory.

Even as the government allows couples to have up to three children, the cost of raising a child remains a major obstacle. A 2024 study by the YuWa Population Research Institute put the average cost of raising a child to age 18 at 538,000 yuan, among the highest in the world. In big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the figure is more than one million yuan.

In addition to levying taxes on contraceptives, Beijing has also exempted VAT on various services that relate to family life, such as nurseries, kindergartens, elder-care facilities, and marriage-related services. According to officials, reducing young parents' economic burdens is vital for long-term demographic stability. Local governments have also been offering paid parental leave, targeted subsidies and incentives for childcare infrastructure, although experts feel such measures are insufficient in the face of the fertility decline.

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Public Health Concerns After HIV Rise

The decision to tax condoms has sparked debate on social media platforms such as Weibo, amid a documented rise in HIV/AIDS cases over the past two decades. According to statistics from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, HIV cases surged from 0.37 per 100,000 people in 2002 to 8.41 per 100,000 in 2021, with most infections connected to unprotected sex.

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Social media users pointed out that more expensive condoms could undermine awareness efforts in a country where sex education remains limited, and stigma around sexual health endures. Beijing's newest tax policy is, however, part of a broader effort to reverse decades of strict family planning, but significant structural reforms like affordable housing, stable employment, and accessible childcare may be necessary before couples feel confident choosing parenthood again.