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A year-old video by renowned Chinese historian and educator Jiang Xueqin is going viral after many of his predictions, once dismissed as speculative, now appear eerily prescient. Posted on May 29, 2024, on his YouTube channel Predictive History, the video resurfaces amid escalating US-Iran tensions and the renewed political rise of Donald Trump.

In the now-trending clip, Jiang warns that a second Trump presidency could lead to a catastrophic military invasion of Iran, driven more by television optics than sound military strategy. “Trump would attack the moment it makes him look strong on TV,” Jiang said, describing the US president’s approach as more spectacle than strategy.

Comparing Iran To Ancient Sicily

Jiang draws a historical parallel to the Athenian invasion of Sicily in 415 BCE during the Peloponnesian War, a disastrous campaign that led to the fall of the Athenian empire. He warns that the US could face a similar fate if it launches a full-scale invasion of Iran. Despite initial successes, the war would likely end in failure due to Iran’s mountainous geography, population resilience, and logistical challenges.

“To win a war, you must avoid encirclement, concentrate your forces, and maintain secure supply routes,” Jiang explains. “Iran’s geography makes all of this nearly impossible.”

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Jiang outlines that Iran’s population of over 90 million, combined with its terrain, makes occupation militarily unrealistic. He estimates that the US would need at least 3 million troops to control the country effectively, a figure he calls “militarily and politically impossible.” He adds that supply lines would collapse, as all resources would need to be air-dropped, a strategy used by the Soviets in Afghanistan, which ultimately failed.

Nuclear Justification And Russian Opportunism

According to Jiang, the US and Israel would likely justify the war by pointing to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He suggests that the US might commit 100,000 troops initially, though this would be insufficient without allied support.

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Jiang also foresees Russian President Vladimir Putin capitalising on American distraction in the Middle East to advance his own agenda in Ukraine. “This war isn’t over,” Jiang warns of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. “It will flare up again, and the next phase will be even more dangerous.”

Who Is Jiang Xueqin?

Jiang is a Beijing-based writer, educator, and former journalist. A Yale graduate, he has advised top Chinese schools, served with the United Nations, and spoken at global education forums. He’s the author of Creative China and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.

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