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In a significant admission, Google has admitted that its Android Earthquake Alerts System (AEA) did not provide timely warnings before the catastrophic twin earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria on February 6, 2023. The deadly quakes, 7.8 and 7.5 in magnitude, killed over 55,000 individuals and injured over 100,000, which is one of the deadliest in recent history. Though the AEA system was live and functional then, Google's detection mechanism seriously underestimated the strength of the first quake, issuing only 469 "Take Action" alerts, its most severe warning, despite almost 10 million individuals in a 160-kilometre radius of the epicentre being eligible for them. Instead, some 500,000 users got a significantly less critical "Be Aware" alert, aimed at light shaking, and which does not interrupt 'Do Not Disturb' settings or trigger an alarm.

Google's Earthquake Alert System Facing Criticism

The Android Earthquake Alerts System, which works by utilizing accelerometers in Android devices to feel the motion of the ground, will provide users with valuable seconds to evacuate prior to seismic waves. The system is running on more than 70 per cent of Android phones in Turkey and is capable of interrupting all other notifications in the case of heavy ground motion. But the detection algorithm overestimated the severity of the first 7.8-magnitude earthquake, initially reporting it at a magnitude between 4.5 and 4.9a significant underestimation. Consequently, an overwhelming majority of residents saw no useful warning prior to the 4:17 am tragedy, which occurred while millions were asleep. The tech giant first asserted that the system "performed well," then retreated from that stance after months of pressure and independent examinations by the BBC. Officials were unable to find a single user in the disaster zone who had been sent the high-priority "Take Action" alert before the earthquake in the weeks and months following the disaster.

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Revised Simulation Discovers Original System Defects

After the disaster, Google scientists simulated a renewed version of the very same earthquake alert with revised algorithms. This time, the system would have issued around 10 million "Take Action" notifications and 67 million "Be Aware" warnings, indicating egregious defects in the original software that had not identified the quake's actual intensity. The research was released in the Science journal, where Google engineers conceded to "detection algorithms' limitations." They went on to say that calibrating systems for large-magnitude earthquakes is still a significant technical challenge across all early warning systems. "Tuning algorithms for large magnitude earthquakes is very challenging for any earthquake early warning system," Google reported, reiterating also its intention to continue developing the system based on continued learnings from actual disasters.

A second intense earthquake hit the area later in the day. In this case, the AEA system responded better, sending more than 8,100 "Take Action" messages and close to four million "Be Aware" alerts. Nevertheless, experts observed that even these numbers were disproportionately low relative to the intensity and far-reaching effect of the aftershock. Google has since widened the ambit of the AEA system, which now covers 98 countries, and has implemented substantial upgrades to its earthquake detection algorithm in a bid to avoid future failures.

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Experts Criticize Delay, Transparency, and Over-Dependence On Big Tech

The delayed disclosure of the system’s failure has drawn sharp criticism from seismologists and public safety experts. Elizabeth Reddy, an assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines, expressed frustration, as reported by The Times of India, “We’re not talking about a small event. People died. And we didn’t see a performance that meets the standards we expect.” On the other hand, Harold Tobin, the director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, worried that governments would over-reli on Google's internal systems at the cost of developing strong national early warning frameworks. "Would some locations make the calculation that Google's doing it, so we don't have to?" Tobin noted, emphasising the need for transparency of such mechanisms. Google responded by explaining that its platform is intended to augment, not substitute, national earthquake alert systems. Google reaffirmed its vow to enhance AEA's efficiency and dependability, especially in regions susceptible to earthquakes.