India’s decisive control of the air domain during the four-day Operation Sindoor in May 2025 forced Pakistan to seek a ceasefire, according to a new Swiss military assessment that analyses the brief but intense India-Pakistan air confrontation.
The report, titled Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025), concludes that India retained clear escalation dominance throughout the 88-hour conflict, successfully protected its critical air-defence assets and demonstrated credible deep-strike capabilities without crossing nuclear thresholds. The study has been authored by military analyst Adrien Fontanellaz and published by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM), an independent Swiss military research institution based in Pully.
India Controlled Escalation
According to the analysis, New Delhi controlled both the tempo and ceiling of escalation, denying Pakistan any decisive operational gains. The report notes that India’s political leadership, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, authorised strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba infrastructure deep inside Pakistani territory following the Pahalgam terror attack, while granting the armed forces significant autonomy to manage escalation dynamics.
Pakistan’s Initial Moves Triggered Indian Counteroffensive
The study argues that Pakistan’s initial aerial and missile actions on the night of May 7–8 triggered a second, pre-planned phase of Indian escalation. On May 8, the Indian Air Force (IAF) launched sustained air interdiction operations aimed at degrading Pakistani air-defence networks.
These strikes targeted border surveillance radars and long-range surface-to-air missile systems, with eight air-defence sites hit on May 8 and four more on May 9.
Air Defence Systems Neutralised
Visual evidence cited in the report confirms the neutralisation of at least two early-warning radars at Chunian and Pasrur. The IAF also claimed to have struck an HQ-9 air-defence battery, although Pakistan countered by stating it had shot down 25 Indian drones on May 9.
A key moment highlighted in the report involves an Indian S-400 air-defence system allegedly engaging a Pakistani Erieye or electronic-warfare aircraft at a distance of nearly 300 kilometres, catching the Pakistan Air Force off guard. While Islamabad did not officially confirm the loss, the report suggests the incident significantly undermined Pakistani confidence in its airspace surveillance.
As Pakistani radar coverage weakened, several systems reportedly went silent to avoid detection, creating conditions that could have allowed deeper Indian penetration.
Deep-Strike Capability Forces Ceasefire
When India detected preparations for another Pakistani strike late on May 9, it launched near-immediate counterstrikes in the early hours of May 10. Using BrahMos, SCALP-EG and Rampage missiles fired from within Indian airspace, Indian aircraft struck seven targets up to 200 kilometres inside Pakistan, including five air bases and a surface-to-air missile site.
The Swiss report concludes that this overwhelming display of air superiority and controlled escalation ultimately compelled Pakistan to seek a ceasefire.
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