• Source:JND
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José Raúl Mulino, a lawyer, diplomat and former security minister, has emerged victorious in Panama's recent presidential election, securing the office with approximately 35 per cent of the vote. His win marks a significant moment for Panama, highlighting his strong backing from influential figures, including former President Ricardo Martinelli and demonstrating the trust placed in him by a substantial portion of the electorate. This victory underlines the changing dynamics within Panama's political landscape, indicating a shift that could have profound implications for the nation's future. The presidency of José Raúl Mulino promises to usher in a new era for Panama, with expectations running high regarding his approach to governance, economic policies and foreign relations.

José Raúl Mulino's Path To Victory

José Raúl Mulino's journey to the presidency of Panama was marked by a series of strategic moves and political alliances that played a crucial role in his electoral success. The path to victory for Mulino was strategically laid out through the effective transfer of political capital from Ricardo Martinelli, a former president who had garnered significant support but was ineligible to run due to legal issues. Mulino, inheriting Martinelli's support base, positioned himself as a candidate capable of bringing economic prosperity and addressing pressing issues such as migration through the Panama Canal's Darien Gap. His promise to form a coalition government consisting of the brightest minds in the nation further appealed to a broad spectrum of voters.

Despite facing criticism and legal challenges, including a supreme court dismissal of a complaint against his candidacy, Mulino's campaign maintained momentum. Manuel Antonio Noriega resonated with many Panamanians who viewed José as a candidate with both political acumen and a commitment to civil liberties.

Ricardo Martinelli’s Influence

Ricardo Martinelli's deep-rooted influence on José Raúl Mulino's political career and presidency is undeniable. As a former president of Panama, Martinelli's tenure saw Mulino serving as the Minister of Public Security, a period during which significant policies and decisions were shaped under Martinelli’s guidance. During his presidency from 2009 to 2014, Martinelli implemented several high-profile security measures, such as the installation of surveillance cameras in public places. The aggressive stance on crime, characterised by a focus on arrests and incarcerations, mirrored Martinelli’s own policies. This alignment of strategies not only solidified their professional relationship but also positioned Mulino as a continuation of Martinelli's legacy in the eyes of many voters. Despite facing numerous legal challenges and corruption charges, Martinelli's influence remained potent. In 2019, Mulino publicly endorsed Martinelli for the presidency, a move that underscored the enduring bond between the two. 

Early Political Involvement And Roles

Mulino's political career began under the administration of President Guillermo Endara, where he served as the vice minister of foreign affairs. His role later expanded to overseeing the country’s international policy, setting the stage for his deeper involvement in national politics. His subsequent appointment as minister of the interior and justice and later as the head of the public security office during Ricardo Martinelli’s administration, solidified his position within Panama's political landscape.

Election Day 

On May 5, 2024, José Raúl Mulino won the presidential election with 34 per cent of the votes, a clear lead over his nearest rival by nine percentage points. The election saw a historic turnout, with more than 77 per cent of eligible voters participating, reflecting the high stakes and the public's engagement in the electoral process. 

In his victory speech, Mulino emphasised his dedication to fostering business and investment while addressing the needs of the underprivileged. He vowed to end what he termed 'political persecution,' marking his presidency as a new chapter for Panama. His approach to governance, particularly his strategies to handle migration and economic challenges, will be crucial in determining the success of his administration.

Public Perception And Expectations

The public's perception of Mulino’s independence as a leader is mixed. Some view his victory as a return to the economic prosperity experienced under Martinelli, driven by nostalgia and the desire for stability. Others, however, are cautious, wary of a presidency that might too closely echo past administrations, especially given the controversies that surrounded Martinelli. 

The primary concerns driving voters to the polls were the high cost of living, access to drinking water and crime. These issues were at the forefront of the electorate's mind, influencing their choices and expectations from the new leadership. The increased voter turnout indicated a populace eager for change and solutions to these pressing problems.

Political Landscape Of Panama

The political landscape of Panama, as José Raúl Mulino assumes the presidency, is marked by a series of deep-seated challenges and a populace ready for substantial change. The country is grappling with weakened political institutions and rising social discontent, compounded by economic pressures that threaten to destabilise the already fragile socio-economic fabric.

Political Shifts 

The results also led to significant changes in the composition of Congress. Many incumbents lost their seats, reflecting public frustration with the existing legislative body. Notably, the number of independents in the 71-member Congress increased substantially from 5 to 21, signalling a shift in public sentiment towards seeking alternative political voices and solutions outside the traditional party lines.

Weakened Political Institutions And Social Discontent

Panama's political institutions have suffered from a prolonged period of erosion, exacerbated by pervasive corruption and governance failures. This institutional weakening has led to a crisis of confidence among the populace, who are increasingly disillusioned with the political process. The tumultuous political and legal landscape leading up to the 2024 elections highlighted these issues, with corruption at the forefront of public discourse. As Mulino steps into office, restoring trust and integrity in Panama's political institutions will be paramount.

Environmental And Resource Management

The environmental challenges, particularly the severe drought affecting the Panama Canal, require immediate attention. This natural resource issue not only impacts the canal's operational capacity but also affects the broader economic landscape of Panama. Effective management of these environmental concerns will be crucial for sustaining economic growth and maintaining public trust.

Economic Promises And Job Creation

During his previous tenure as the security minister from 2009 to 2014, Panama enjoyed an average GDP growth rate of 8.4 per cent, one of the highest in Latin America. This period of economic prosperity was characterised by high levels of foreign investment and robust economic policies. Stakeholders and citizens alike will be looking to see if Mulino can replicate this economic success during his presidency, amidst different global and local economic conditions.Analysts are optimistic that Mulino will implement policies aimed at restarting economic growth and creating quality jobs. The focus will likely be on recovering the country's investment appeal and addressing various economic and social issues that have surfaced in recent years. These efforts are crucial for stabilising Panama's economy, which has faced challenges such as rising debt levels and slowing GDP growth.

Infrastructure And Development Initiatives

José Raúl Mulino has articulated a clear vision for bolstering Panama's infrastructure, which includes significant projects aimed at enhancing the nation's educational and transportation sectors. A cornerstone of this initiative is the construction of a new university, which aims to foster higher education and research capabilities in Panama. Additionally, Mulino plans to develop a comprehensive train line that will traverse much of the country, potentially transforming the connectivity and economic dynamics between Panama City and the interior regions.

Pro-Business Policies and Foreign Investment

Mulino's administration is set to adopt a decidedly pro-business stance, with plans to invigorate foreign investment and propel Panama's GDP growth to an ambitious target of 7 per cent. These efforts are expected to not only revive the economic landscape but also create job opportunities and stabilise the national economy in the long term. The focus on expanding infrastructure development further complements this strategy, aiming to create a more conducive environment for both local and international businesses.

Addressing Economic And Social Challenges

The campaign trail for Mulino was marked by promises to tackle a variety of economic and social issues that are pivotal to Panama's growth. These include boosting job growth, enhancing tourism and increasing agricultural production—all of which are essential for sustainable economic development. Additionally, Mulino has committed to lowering the cost of medicines and providing free internet access to schools, initiatives that speak to his broader goal of improving the quality of life for all Panamanians.

Strategic Economic Reforms

One of the more controversial yet critical economic decisions facing Mulino is the negotiation regarding the closure of the Cobre Panamá mine, operated by Canadian firm First Quantum Minerals Limited. Following a ruling by Panama’s Supreme Court that declared the mine's USD 10-billion contract unconstitutional, Mulino's approach to this issue will have significant economic and environmental implications. This decision is particularly sensitive, given the mine's substantial contribution to the national economy and the broader debates surrounding sustainable mining practices in Panama.

Commitment To Economic Prosperity And Stability 

Mulino's overarching economic strategy is framed around re-establishing Panama as a haven for investment and addressing the pressing economic challenges that have surfaced in recent years. With Panama's GDP growth forecasted to slow significantly, from 7.3 per cent in 2023 to an estimated 2.5 per cent this year, these measures are deemed crucial for reversing the economic downturn and setting Panama on a path to recovery and prosperity.

As José Raúl Mulino prepares to assume the presidency, his economic policies and strategies are anticipated to have a significant impact on Panama's economy. The focus will be on several key areas, including negotiations with major international stakeholders, historical economic performance and the proposed revitalization of economic growth and job creation.

Negotiations With First Quantum Minerals Limited

Mulino is expected to enter into critical negotiations with the Canadian mining firm First Quantum Minerals Limited regarding the future of the Cobre Panamá mine. This mine, one of the largest copper producers in the region, has been a cornerstone of Panama's export economy. The outcome of these negotiations will not only affect the mining sector but also have broader implications for foreign investment and environmental policies in Panama.

U.S.-Panama Strategic Alliance

The relationship between Panama and the United States has historically been strong, characterised by deep economic, educational and familial ties. These connections are set to be reinforced under Mulino's administration, which aims to collaborate closely with the U.S. on several critical issues. During a recent conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Mulino discussed the importance of bilateral cooperation to ensure the continued success of the Panama Canal and to promote regional economic development and prosperity.

Regional Relations And Diplomatic Stances

José Raúl Mulino's presidency is expected to significantly shape Panama's foreign policy, particularly in its relations with the United States and regional neighbours.  Mulino's government is poised to maintain a strong alliance with the United States and is expected not to shy away from disputes with leftist governments in the region. This stance could redefine Panama's diplomatic relations in Central and South America, where political alignments are continually shifting. The administration's approach to these relationships will be crucial in determining Panama's role on the regional and global stage. Both nations have expressed a commitment to fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Security is another significant area of mutual interest, with both countries looking to intensify efforts to curb irregular migration through the Darien region. This cooperation is vital, considering the strategic importance of Panama as a conduit for migration and its implications for regional stability.

Expectations For Economic and Social Improvements

Citizens are particularly expectant of the economic promises made by Mulino, especially those related to job creation in the construction sector, spurred by the proposed rail line project. This initiative is seen as a potential catalyst for employment opportunities and economic revitalization. Additionally, the public is looking forward to enhancements in tourism and agriculture, sectors that are pivotal to Panama's economic stability and growth.

Improving the educational infrastructure is also a significant expectation. The promise of free internet access in schools is anticipated to bridge the digital divide and enhance educational outcomes for students across the nation. Furthermore, lowering the costs of medicines is a critical issue for many Panamanians and there is a strong public demand for these changes to be implemented swiftly and effectively.

Collaborative Efforts To Address Inequality

There is a widespread expectation that Mulino's government will tackle the growing inequality in Panama by fostering a collaborative environment with the private sector to stimulate employment and attract foreign direct investment. The public expects these efforts to be inclusive and to genuinely contribute to reducing the economic disparities that have long affected the nation.

Implications For Governance

The extent of Martinelli’s influence raises questions about the autonomy of Mulino’s presidency. Observers and critics alike speculate on how this influence might manifest in the new administration. There are concerns about the potential for governance that leans heavily on past practices, particularly in the realms of security and economic policy, which were hallmarks of Martinelli’s administration.

Concerns Over Authoritarian Leadership

While there is optimism about the potential changes Mulino's presidency could bring, there is also concern about his known authoritarian leadership style. Given Panama's recent history of public protests against government policies perceived as impositions, there is a wary eye on how Mulino will balance his approach to governance with the public's increasing readiness to hold their leaders accountable. This aspect of his presidency will be closely watched, as any move perceived as overly authoritarian could lead to significant public unrest. How well Mulino meets people’s expectations while managing the inherent challenges of his leadership approach will likely define the public’s lasting perception of his tenure.