India-US Interim Trade Deal Likely In 48 Hours: What Stands In The Way Of Crucial Pact | 5 Key Factors

1. 'Mini trade deal in next 48 hours'

According to a report by NDTV, an interim trade deal is expected to be finalised in the next 48 hours. The Indian team, headed by special secretary in the Department of Commerce Rajesh Agrawal, is in Washington for negotiations on an interim trade agreement with the US. The stay of the Indian officials has been extended. Initially, the delegation was scheduled to stay for two days, with the talks having commenced on June 26.

These talks are also important as the suspension date of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs is approaching. It will end on July 9. The two sides are looking at finalising the talks before that, the official said.

2. India's tough position on trade deal

India has hardened its position on giving duty concessions to American farm products. It is seeking duty concessions for its labour-intensive goods such as textiles, engineering, leather, gems and jewellery. “If the proposed trade talks fail, the 26 per cent tariffs will come into force again,” news agency PTI quoted officials as saying.

On April 2, the US imposed an additional 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods but suspended it for 90 days. However, the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed by America remains in place. India is seeking full exemption from the additional 26 per cent tariff. The US is demanding duty concessions in both the agriculture and dairy sectors. But these segments are difficult and challenging areas for India to give duty concessions to the US, as Indian farmers are into sustenance farming and have small land holdings.

Therefore, these sectors are politically very sensitive.

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3. India doesn't want to open its farming and dairy sectors for US

India has not opened up the dairy sector for any of its trading partners in free trade pacts the country has signed so far. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government "doesn't want to be seen as surrendering the interests of farmers - a strong political group in the country," one of the sources said, Reuters reported.

4. What the US wants from India

The US wants duty concessions on certain industrial goods, automobiles, especially electric vehicles, wines, petrochemical products, dairy, and agricultural items like apples, tree nuts, and genetically modified crops.

India is seeking duty concessions for labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, garments, plastics, chemicals, shrimp, oil seeds, grapes, and bananas in the proposed trade pact. The two countries are also looking to conclude talks for the first tranche of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) by fall (September-October) this year. The pact is aimed at more than doubling bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 from the current USD 191 billion.

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Before the first tranche, they are trying for an interim trade pact. The US team was here from June 5 to June 11 for the talks. The negotiations will continue both virtually and physically in the days to come. India’s merchandise exports to the US rose by 21.78 per cent to USD 17.25 billion in April-May this fiscal, while imports rose by 25.8 per cent to USD 8.87 billion.

5. India-US trade talks on critical stage: GTRI

Commenting on India’s demand, think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that as talks for the pact reach a critical stage, India is pushing hard for full tariff elimination on high-employment exports such as garments, footwear, carpets, and leather goods.

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Without this relief, the deal will be politically unsellable at home, GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said, adding Washington appears unwilling to scrap high MFN (most favoured nation) tariffs or country-specific duties. Under current proposals, Indian goods could face a 10 per cent surcharge on top of MFN rates, eroding competitiveness and effectively reversing market access gains, he said.

(With inputs from agency)