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Asteroid 2024 YR4 Update:  A space rock about the size of a ten-story building, asteroid 2024 YR4, may strike the Moon in 2032, according to new information released by NASA. Updated projections indicate that the asteroid's chances of striking the Moon have increased slightly from 3.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first identified in late 2024, and its possible threat to Earth initially raised concerns. It had one of the highest initial risks ever noted at the time, with a 3.1 per cent chance of impacting Earth, and was listed on NASA's Sentry Impact Risk Table. But additional observations disproved any serious threat to our planet.

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Key Facts

• Type: Apollo-class asteroid
• Size: 53 to 67 meters (174–220 feet)
• Discovery: December 2024
• Initial Earth Risk: 3.1 per cent (now near zero)
• Current Moon Impact Chance: 4.3 per cent in December 2032
• Next Visibility: 2028

Significant But Not Hazardous, Says NASA

Before the asteroid passed behind the Sun and was out of the reach of telescopes on Earth, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) was instrumental in tracking it. Captured in May 2025, JWST’s data improved the accuracy of its projected path by nearly 20 per cent, helping scientists better estimate the asteroid’s position on December 22, 2032. Additionally, JWST achieved a significant milestone as 2024 YR4 was the tiniest object ever seen by the powerful space observatory. Experts stress that there is no reason for concern. Astronomer Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, told Space.com that even if the asteroid strikes the Moon, it won't change its orbit or endanger Earth. “Any debris flung from the impact would likely disintegrate in Earth’s atmosphere, should it come near,” Kumar added. NASA assured the public that a collision with an asteroid of this size would be scientifically very significant but not dangerous, because the Moon has endured countless such impacts before.

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Even though Earth is no longer in danger as of 2024 YR4, astronomers are still tracking it. The asteroid is a key target for continuing planetary defense research because of its potential to destroy cities and its shifting trajectory. The asteroid won't be visible from Earth again until 2028, when researchers will use fresh data to better understand its orbit. In response to near-miss asteroids like YR4 and Apophis, NASA has increased its planetary defense efforts. Space agencies have been speeding up plans to find and destroy asteroids since the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) was successful in 2022.

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By 2027, the NEO Surveyor, a new mission, is expected to begin operations. Within 30 million miles of Earth, 90 per cent of near-Earth objects larger than 140 meters should be detectable by this space telescope. The slight but significant possibility of a Moon impact in 2032 has drawn scientific attention to possible lunar repercussions, even though asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth. With advancements like JWST and future missions, astronomers are now better equipped than ever to monitor space rocks, even the smallest ones across our solar system.