- By Shivangi Sharma
- Mon, 31 Mar 2025 08:59 PM (IST)
- Source:JND
The Japanese government has issued a stark warning about the potential for a catastrophic megaquake along its Pacific coast, which could trigger devastating tsunamis, destroy thousands of buildings, and result in nearly 300,000 deaths. This warning comes from a government report released on Monday, highlighting the increasing risks posed by accumulating tectonic stress in the Nankai Trough, a seismically active zone off Japan’s southwest coast.
Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone nations in the world, faces about an 80 per cent chance of experiencing a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake along the Nankai Trough. This tectonic zone stretches approximately 900 km (600 miles), where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate. Scientists estimate that megaquakes occur in this region approximately once every 100 to 150 years.
Last year, Japan issued its first-ever megaquake advisory, warning of a "relatively higher chance" of a magnitude 9 earthquake in the area. This came after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck at the edge of the trough, raising concerns about increasing seismic activity.
Projected Devastation And Economic Impact
In the worst-case scenario outlined by the government, a magnitude 9 earthquake could result in massive destruction. The report estimates that as many as 298,000 people could perish if the quake occurs late at night during winter. The anticipated casualties from the potential megaquake are expected to be devastating. Tsunamis pose the greatest threat, with an estimated 215,000 lives at risk due to massive waves engulfing coastal regions. Additionally, the destruction of buildings could result in 73,000 fatalities as structures collapse under the force of the tremors. Fires triggered by the earthquake could further contribute to the disaster, potentially causing 9,000 deaths.
Additionally, the economic impact could be devastating. The projected damage has been revised to USD 1.8 trillion, accounting for inflation and updated terrain data. This figure represents nearly half of Japan’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), significantly exceeding previous estimates of 214.2 trillion yen.
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Lessons From 2011 Megaquake
The warning brings back memories of the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, a magnitude 9 disaster that triggered a massive tsunami, leading to over 15,000 deaths and causing the Fukushima nuclear disaster. The government has since implemented stricter building codes and invested in advanced tsunami defense systems, but experts warn that another large-scale quake could still overwhelm preparedness measures.
Preparedness And Future Actions
The Japanese government is urging citizens to take proactive measures, including earthquake-proofing homes and developing evacuation plans. Authorities are also focusing on strengthening disaster response systems, enhancing early warning technologies, and reinforcing critical infrastructure.
With the high probability of a megaquake occurring within the coming decades, Japan remains on high alert. The government continues to study seismic activity in the region, hoping to mitigate the catastrophic effects of the next major earthquake.