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NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock whose projected path brings it uncomfortably close to the Moon in the year 2032. While current calculations estimate only a 4 percent chance of a lunar impact, scientists caution that uncertainties remain, and the asteroid’s trajectory could shift as more data becomes available. 

According to ESA, the odds of YR4 striking the Moon stand at roughly 1 in 25, meaning it is 96 percent likely to miss. However, researchers warn that these predictions are still preliminary. Early analyses suggest about an 80 percent probability that upcoming observations, particularly those scheduled for early 2026 using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, will drastically reduce the impact probability to nearly zero.

What Happens If It Hits The Moon?

If asteroid 2024 YR4 does collide with the Moon, the impact would be dramatic. Simulations show it could blast a 0.5 to 1 kilometer-wide crater, releasing massive amounts of energy. The collision would eject tonnes of lunar debris into space, potentially posing a hazard to satellites orbiting Earth.

Scientists also believe the debris could produce a meteor shower visible from Earth, similar to natural “shooting stars,” but more intense. Importantly, even in the event of a direct lunar hit, Earth itself is not in danger, although orbital infrastructure could face temporary risks.

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A Rare Scientific Opportunity

For NASA researchers, the possibility of witnessing a fresh impact on the Moon holds major scientific value. Such events are almost never observed in real time. “The Moon is our archive,” one NASA scientist explained. “Every crater is a chapter in its history. If we get to watch one form live, that’s extraordinary.”

A direct observation would help scientists understand how ejecta spreads, how shockwaves affect the lunar surface, and how similar impacts shaped the early solar system billions of years ago.

Can The Danger Be Prevented?

To address even the small chance of collision, both NASA and ESA have begun evaluating potential mitigation strategies. Options include:

 - Deflecting the asteroid using a spacecraft, similar to NASA’s successful DART mission

 - Deploying a nuclear device to alter its trajectory (a last-resort concept)

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