United States President Donald Trump’s decision to block ports at the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway already blocked by Iran since the outbreak of the war has shocked everyone. The development comes at a time when global energy security is facing critical risks due to ongoing disruptions in key shipping routes. While a two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 8, raised expectations that shipping would resume ultimately, the latest move has led to growing uncertainty.

Will Energy Crisis Deepen?

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have severe global consequences, especially for energy and food security. The United Nations (UN) and its agencies, particularly the World Food Programme (WFP), have warned of significant global food risks due to the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. This narrow passage is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, and any disruption could sharply reduce the supply of oil, causing prices to spike worldwide.

A UN news report quoted Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), who highlighted the magnitude of the impact on global energy supplies. He said, “We have 30-35 per cent of the crude oil, which is not moving, 20 per cent of natural gas...and between 20 to 30 per cent of other fertilizers that are not moving out.”

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Fears Of Food Crisis

However, it is not just energy that passes through this 167 km long channel. This strait is also a lifeline for more than 100 million people in the Gulf region who depend on it for their food and essential goods. Higher fuel costs would increase transportation and production expenses, making food more expensive and less accessible, particularly in vulnerable regions. Prices of food items like wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, meat, bread and pasta are likley to increase due to supply shortages.

Furthermore, the halt in supply of fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based products linked to natural gas, would threaten the agricultural sector. Australia is heavily reliant on imported fertilisers that often comes from countries using the Strait for passage. Moreover, one-third of the world's seaborne fertiliser also passes through Hormuz, threatening to cause severe global shortages if the blockade continues.

If the conflict escalates further and the strait remains disrupted, it can lead to an energy shock and contribute to a broader food and economic crisis affecting millions of people.

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